中國減排政策對碳排放價格影響 ——以廣東碳排放交易市場爲例

Abstract

全球氣候變化問題日益嚴峻，碳排放交易成爲全球範圍內减緩氣候變化的重要手段之一。中國作為世界第一大碳排放國,積極參與全球减排行動，幷建立了碳排放權交易市場。在中國，廣東省作爲碳排放權交易試點的省份之一，其市場規模在中國範圍內居於前列。對廣東碳排放交易價格的影響因素進行識別分析，不僅對于深入瞭解碳市場運行機制、推動中國其他碳排放權交易試點的不斷完善具有重要參考價值，也對推動中國産業轉型升級，推動綠色低碳發展也具有重要意義。因此，本研究旨在分析影響廣東省碳排放交易價格的關鍵因素,爲完善碳市場機制提供理論依據和政策建議。 文章首先界定了碳排放交易及其價格的概念，幷對相關文獻進行了綜述。理論基礎包括公共物品和外部性理論、科斯定理和產權理論、供需理論以及價格均衡理論。研究框架涵蓋了供給側、需求側和政策因素對碳排放交易價格的影響。在中國碳排放交易市場現狀分析中，文章概述了中國碳市場的發展歷程、規模、配額分配、交易機制等，幷對比了八個試點碳市場的情况。重點介紹了廣東省碳排放交易所的發展背景、交易規模、方式及價格變化。針對廣東省碳排放交易的影響因素，文章從供應側、需求側和政策三個方面進行了分析。供應側主要考慮碳排放配額和核證自願减排量；需求側包括能源價格、宏觀經濟和氣溫因素；政策因素則涉及相關法規和措施的影響。 爲深入研究廣東省碳排放交易價格的影響機制，本文利用廣州碳排放權交易中心的數據，采用計量經濟學方法，通過數據收集、模型構建和變量設定，構建了多元綫性回歸模型進行實證研究，對各影響因素進行了平穩性檢驗、相關性檢驗和回歸分析。研究結果表明：廣東省碳排放交易價格受到供給側因素和政策因素的共同影響；碳排放配額量的供給减少會導致碳排放權的緊缺，從而推高價格；煤炭能源價格提高會顯著促進影響碳排放交易價格的上漲；地區經濟發展水平會促進和保障碳排放交易市場的價格機製運行；氣溫對廣東省的碳排放交易價格沒有顯著影響；《方案》《生態環境部接管》《廣東省辦法》以及《中國辦法》等各項減排政策的實施對廣東省碳排放交易價格的維持和發展具有積極意義。 最後，本文總結了研究結論，幷提出了相關的對策建議：盡快建立中國性統一碳排放權交易市場，擴大交易行業範圍；監督廣東碳排放交易市場供給渠道，維護市場穩定性；鼓勵市場創新制度，滿足不同交易主體需求；加强碳市場政策體系建設，發揮政策的積極引導作用。 總之，本研究通過對廣東省碳排放交易所價格影響因素的分析，以期爲完善中國碳排放交易市場機制、促進低碳經濟發展提供有價值的參考。隨著中國碳市場的不斷發展和完善，相關研究將更具現實意義和應用價值。

The problem of global climate change has become increasingly serious, and carbon emission trading has become one of the important means to mitigate climate change worldwide. As the world's largest carbon emitter, China has actively participated in global emission reduction efforts and established a carbon emission trading market. In China, Guangdong Province, one of the provinces piloting carbon emissions trading, has one of the largest markets in the country. The identification and analysis of the influencing factors of the carbon emission trading price in Guangdong not only has important reference value for in-depth understanding of the operating mechanism of the carbon market and promoting the continuous improvement of other domestic carbon emission trading pilots, but also has great significance for promoting industrial transformation and upgrading in China and promoting green and low-carbon development. Therefore, this study aims to analyze the key factors affecting the carbon emission trading price in Guangdong Province, and provide theoretical basis and policy suggestions for improving the carbon market mechanism. This paper first defines the concept of carbon emission trading and its price, and reviews the relevant literature. The theoretical basis includes public goods and externalities theory, Coase theorem and property rights theory, supply and demand theory and price equilibrium theory. The research framework covers the impact of supply-side, demand-side and policy factors on emissions trading prices. In the analysis of the current situation of China's carbon emission trading market, the paper summarizes the development process, scale, quota allocation, trading mechanism of the national carbon market, and compares the situation of eight pilot carbon markets. This paper mainly introduces the development background, trading scale, mode and price change of Guangdong carbon Emission Exchange. Aiming at the influencing factors of carbon emission trading in Guangdong Province, this paper analyzes the supply side, demand side and policy. The supply side mainly considers carbon emission quotas and certified voluntary emission reductions； The demand side includes energy prices, macroeconomic and temperature factors； Policy factors involve the impact of relevant regulations and measures. In order to deeply study the influencing mechanism of carbon emission trading price in Guangdong province, this paper uses the data of Guangzhou Carbon Emission Trading Center, adopts econometric method, through data collection, model construction and variable setting, constructs a multiple linear regression model for empirical research, and conducts stationarity test, correlation test and regression analysis on the influencing factors. The results show that the carbon emission trading price in Guangdong Province is affected by both supply-side factors and policy factors. A reduction in the supply of carbon emission allowances will lead to a shortage of carbon emission permits, which will push up the price; The increase of coal energy price will significantly promote the increase of carbon emission trading price; The level of regional economic development will promote and guarantee the operation of the price mechanism of carbon emission trading market; Temperature has no significant effect on the carbon emission trading price in Guangdong Province. The implementation of various emission reduction policies such as the Plan, the Takeover by the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, the Measures of Guangdong Province, and the Measures of China are of positive significance to the maintenance and development of the carbon emission trading price in Guangdong Province. Finally, this paper summarizes the research conclusions, and puts forward relevant countermeasures and suggestions: establish a national unified carbon emission trading market as soon as possible, expand the scope of trading industry； Supervise the supply channels of Guangdong carbon emission trading market to maintain market stability； Encourage market innovation to meet the needs of different trading entities； Strengthen the construction of carbon market policy system and give play to the positive guiding role of policies. In conclusion, this study analyzes the factors affecting the price of carbon emission exchange in Guangdong Province, hoping to provide a valuable reference for improving China's carbon emission trading market mechanism and promoting the development of low-carbon economy. With the continuous development and improvement of the national carbon market, relevant research will be more realistic and applied value.