勝選幅度對於議員提出與選區相關書面質詢數量與質詢強度的影響：以第十二屆臺北市議會為例

Abstract

在追求連任的過程中，議員會透過反映選區議題與利益來獲得選民的支持，從而最大化其選票，以實現勝選的目的，此行為稱為選舉聯繫（Electoral Connection）（Bowler, 2010；Fernandes, 2018；盛杏湲，2005）。 而選舉聯繫又受議員所面臨的選舉壓力影響，在上次選舉中險勝的議員為爭取個人選票（personal vote），有更強烈的動機關心選區問題（André et al., 2015）。本研究以勝選幅度（Reelection Magnitude）反映議員的選舉壓力，其計算方式結合議員的得票數與該選區的族普基數（Droop Quota），當議員的勝選幅度愈高，說明其所面臨的選舉壓力愈低，反之勝選幅度愈低，則表示選舉壓力愈高（王業立，1996；吳宜侃，2005；羅清俊、謝瑩蒔，2008）。 為探討勝選幅度對於議員提出有關選區的問題數量與其質詢強度的影響，本研究以第十二屆臺北市議員的書面質詢為研究對象，利用敘述性統計及群聚穩健標準誤的負二項迴歸模型進行量化分析。發現在第十二屆臺北市議員所提的書面質詢中有778筆與議員所屬的選區事務有關，占25.98%，同時除了第五會期之外，各會期的選區問題比例隨著市議員改選日期的臨近而增加的趨勢。 此外亦觀察到當議員的勝選幅度愈低時，會更常於有關選區的書面質詢中向行政機關要求政策解釋或說明。且由於非線性關係，於特定勝選幅度數值區間中，當議員的勝選幅度愈低時，會更常於有關選區的書面質詢中要求相關決策資訊的提供、要求行政機關修改政策決策或改變行為以及進行制裁或譴責威脅。

During the process of seeking re-election, legislators garner voter support by addressing the interests pertinent to their constituencies. This strategy maximizes their votes and enhances their chances of winning. This behavior is referred to as the Electoral Connection (Bowler, 2010; Fernandes, 2018; Sheng, 2005). Electoral Connection is also influenced by the electoral pressure faced by legislators. Those who narrowly won in the previous election are more motivated to address district issues to secure personal votes (André et al., 2015). This study uses Reelection Magnitude to measure a legislator's electoral pressure, calculated by combining the number of votes received by the legislator with the district's Droop Quota. A higher Reelection Magnitude indicates lower electoral pressure, while a lower Reelection Magnitude indicates higher electoral pressure (Wang, 1996; Wu, 2005; Lo & Hsieh, 2008). To explore the effects of Reelection Magnitude on the quantity and strength of written question in relation to their constituencies, this study examines the written questions of the 12th Taipei City Councilors. Quantitative analysis is conducted using descriptive statistics and a cluster-robust standard errors for negative binomial regression model. The findings reveal that 778 out of the Written Questions submitted by the 12th Taipei City Council members are related to district affairs, accounting for 25.98%. Additionally, except for the fifth session, the proportion of district-related questions shows an increasing trend as the reelection date approached. Additionally, it is observed that as legislators' Reelection Magnitudes decrease, they tend to make more requests for justification from administrative agencies in their written questions related to the constituencies. Due to the nonlinear relationship, within certain Reelection Magnitude ranges, lower Reelection Magnitudes lead to more requests for information, changes, and sanctions in their constituency-related written questions.