矽盾指數：量化台灣半導體產業在全球AI發展中的戰略地位

Abstract

本研究引入矽盾指數（SHIELD Index），這是一項量化台灣半導體產業韌性及其地緣政治影響的新指標。我們利用主成分分析法（PCA）對各種經濟、技術和地緣政治指標進行分析，模擬2015年至2023年間產業的演變，並進行至2030年的預測。我們的分析顯示，矽盾指數從2015年的0.205顯著上升至2022年的1.000，突顯出台灣在全球供應鏈中的重要性。然而，我們也發現潛在的“矽盾悖論”，即成功可能導致產業稀釋，因為全球利益相關者尋求多樣化其半導體供應鏈。我們還探討了台灣、美國、中國及其他全球行為者在半導體領域的動態互動。我們的研究結果表明，儘管台灣目前的主導地位提供了一定程度的地緣政治保護，但這種優勢在長期內可能不可持續。我們提出了受孫子《兵法》啟發的策略，幫助台灣保持競爭力，適應不斷變化的環境，並結合傳統與非傳統的方法進行創新。這些策略建立在我們數據驅動的分析之上，指出了改善的關鍵領域和潛在的未來挑戰。本研究有助於理解全球半導體產業中技術領導力與地緣政治安全之間的複雜關係，為政策制定者和產業領袖提供了定量框架和洞見，幫助他們在國際技術競爭的演變中航行。

This study introduces the Silicon Shield Index (SHIELD Index), a novel metric quantifying Taiwan's semiconductor industry resilience and its geopolitical implications. Using Principal Component Analysis on diverse economic, technological, and geopolitical indicators, we model the industry's evolution from 1990 to 2023, with projections to 2030. Our analysis reveals a significant increase in the SHIELD Index from 0.205 in 2015 to 1.000 in 2022, highlighting Taiwan's growing importance in the global supply chain. However, we identify a potential "Silicon Shield Paradox" where success may lead to industry dilution as global stakeholders seek to diversify their semiconductor supply chains. We explore the dynamic interplay between Taiwan, the United States, China, and other global actors in the semiconductor landscape. Our findings suggest that while Taiwan's current dominance provides a degree of geopolitical protection, this advantage may not be sustainable long-term. We propose strategies inspired by Sun Tzu's "The Art of War" for Taiwan to maintain competitiveness, adapt to changing circumstances, and combine conventional and unconventional approaches to innovation. These strategies are underpinned by our data-driven analysis, which identifies key areas for improvement and potential future challenges. This research contributes to understanding the complex relationship between technological leadership and geopolitical security in the global semiconductor industry, providing a quantitative framework and insights for policymakers and industry leaders navigating the evolving landscape of international technology competition.