網路社群的氣象科學溝通:以台灣颱風論壇為例

Abstract

隨著大氣科學和電腦科學的發展，氣象預報的準確性不斷提升。許多極端天氣事件的預測已經取得顯著進步，這些技術的進步協助建立預警系統，並持續提升氣象預報不確定性的管理。然而，在科技進步的背後，如何有效地傳遞氣象預報資訊，確保使用者正確理解，成為氣象科學溝通中的重要議題。 本研究旨在探索民間氣象團體於氣象科學溝通中的貢獻，採用個案研究的方式，聚焦於台灣第一個創立的氣象討論平台—台灣颱風論壇。研究探討台灣颱風論壇在日常和高影響天氣期間的科學溝通方式，並分析其對現行由氣象署主導的氣象科學溝通體制的潛在貢獻與社會影響力。 研究方法以內容分析與解讀分析為主，輔以半結構式訪談。主要以台灣颱風論壇2023年蘇拉颱風和海葵颱風期間的臉書貼文和圖資內容為研究範圍，並搭配分析其YouTube、線上課程平台與LINE通訊軟體上的特色內容。再者，與氣象署發布的圖文進行比對，尋找雙方之間的差異。最後，為了深入理解分析結果背後的原因，透過半結構式訪談台灣颱風論壇的內部成員和深度觀察者，探討其網路社群經營的歷程和突破，同時也訪談交通部中央氣象署預報中心人員，了解公部門體系經營網路社群的挑戰與限制。 本研究觀察，台灣颱風論壇作為一個擁有眾多追蹤者的網路氣象社群，展示氣象科學知識在社群媒體中再現的過程。透過豐富的氣象知識和多樣化的溝通技巧，該論壇促進與使用者之間的互動。長期下來，論壇吸引多元群體參與社群，交流天氣資訊，降低民眾參與氣象領域的門檻，提升非大氣科學背景民眾參與氣象領域的可能性。此外，台灣颱風論壇在氣象署主導的氣象科學溝通中，有潛力充當官方與民眾之間的橋梁，化解雙方的矛盾，並且持續拓展氣象領域的討論邊界，使看待氣象科學的視角更加廣泛。

With the development of atmospheric and computer sciences, the accuracy of weather forecasting has continuously improved. Significant progress has been made in predicting many extreme weather events, aiding the establishment of warning systems and enhancing the management of uncertainties in weather forecasting. However, behind technological advancements lies the critical issue of effectively communicating weather forecast information to ensure users correctly understand it, which has become an important topic in meteorological science communication. This study aims to explore the contributions of civil meteorological groups in weather science communication through a case study of Taiwan's first weather discussion platform, Taiwan Typhoon Bulletin Board System (BBS). The study examines the communication methods of the Taiwan Typhoon BBS during both daily and high-impact weather periods and analyzes its potential contributions and social influence on the current meteorological science communication system led by Central Weather Administration (CWA). The research methods primarily include content analysis and interpretive analysis, supplemented by semi-structured interviews. The study focuses on the Facebook posts and graphic content of the Taiwan Typhoon BBS during Typhoon Saola and Typhoon Haikui in 2023. This study also analyzes features and science popularization information on its YouTube channel, online course platform, and LINE communication software. Additionally, the study compares these with the graphics and texts released by the CWA to identify differences between the two. Finally, to understand the reasons behind the analysis results in depth, semi-structured interviews are conducted with internal members and in-depth observers of the Taiwan Typhoon BBS to explore the history and breakthroughs of its online community management. Interviews with personnel from the CWA's Forecast Center are also conducted to understand the challenges and limitations of managing online communities within the public sector system. The study observes that the Taiwan Typhoon BBS, as an online meteorological community with numerous followers, showcases the process of representing meteorological science knowledge in social media. Through rich meteorological knowledge and diverse communication techniques, the forum promotes interaction with users. Over time, the forum attracts diverse groups to participate in the community, exchange weather information, lower the barrier for public participation in the meteorological field, and enhance the possibility of non-atmospheric science background individuals engaging in the meteorological field. Moreover, the Taiwan Typhoon BBS has the potential to act as a bridge between CWA and the public, resolving conflicts between the two and continuously expanding the boundaries of weather discussion, leading to a broader perspective on meteorological science.