自然資源、金融深化與製造業發展

Abstract

本文是一個有關荷蘭病與資源詛咒的研究，旨在探討資源豐富國家製造業的發展情況。針對此問題，本文在進行一系列宏觀與微觀的經驗研究後，得出了兩個有趣的發現。其一，雖然過去研究荷蘭病的文獻多主張自然資源會排擠製造業出口，使資源豐富國家投資製造業與人力資本的誘因降低，並因此阻礙這些國家製造業的長期發展。但本文發現自然資源儘管會排擠製造業出口，但同時也會增加國家的投資能力，是故自然資源不僅不會使製造業投資下降，反而還會使投資提升，這點在實證研究中也獲得應證。也因此，投資減少並不是這些資源豐富國家製造業長期發展不振的主因，真正主要導致這些國家製造業難以發展的原因，其實是因為自然資源容易引發激烈的尋租行為，使得國家對製造業與人力資本的投資往往受尋租的影響而效率不彰。在這種情況下，資源豐富的國家儘管會投資更多資源發展製造業，但這些投資多半無助於讓製造業有效發展。其二，本文發現資源豐富國家若想擺脫尋租的掣肘，金融深化事實上是箇中關鍵，金融深化有助於降低尋租行為與其影響，這麼一來，資源豐富國家普遍受尋租影響的製造業也將因此在金融深化後獲得改善，這點在實證研究中同樣也獲得了應證。

This paper is a research about the Dutch disease and the resource curse, which aims to explore manufacturing development in resource-rich countries. In addressing this issue, the paper conducts a series of quantitative and qualitative studies and arrives at two interesting findings. First, although past literature on Dutch disease often suggests that natural resources crowd out manufacturing exports, reducing the incentives for resource-rich countries to invest in manufacturing and human capital, thus hindering their long-term manufacturing development, this paper finds that while natural resources may crowd out manufacturing exports, they also increase the country's investment capacity. Consequently, natural resources not only do not reduce manufacturing investment but even improve it. This point is also supported by empirical evidence. Thus, this paper suggests that the stagnation of manufacturing growth in resource-rich countries is not because of lacking investment. The main reason these countries find it difficult to develop manufacturing is that natural resources easily trigger acute rent-seeking behavior, causing national investments in manufacturing and human capital to be inefficient due to the influence of rent-seeking. In such a situation, although resource-rich countries may invest more resources in developing manufacturing, these investments often do not effectively foster manufacturing growth. Second, the paper finds that financial deepening is crucial for resource-rich countries to break free from the constraints of rent-seeking. Financial deepening helps reduce rent-seeking behavior and its effects, thereby improving the manufacturing sector, which is often affected by rent-seeking, in resource-rich countries after financial deepening. This point is also supported by empirical evidence.