有限產能與產品滾動策略對多世代產品定價之影響

Abstract

隨著科技進步和消費者需求的多樣化，供應商轉向少量多樣的生產模式，新產品不斷推陳出新、產品生命周期縮短，市面上同時販售多世代產品的現象趨於普遍，多世代的產品之間具有相似性、替代關係並競爭同一群消費者，因此供應商如何制定產品滾動策略 ( Product Rollover ) 便成為一個重要議題。此外，世代間利用相似的有限資源以及技術尚未成熟的原因，新產品剛上市時容易發生供不應求的情況，因此供應商的產能限制規劃也是本研究的研究重點。本研究運用兩階段的賽局模型探討產品滾動策略與產能限制策略會如何影響新舊產品的需求量及零售商定價策略。產品滾動策略分為單產品滾動與雙產品滾動策略，產能限制策略則考慮固定均分 ( Fixed Allocation ) 及轉嫁分配 ( Turn-and-earn Allocation ) 兩種，並假設生產舊產品技術成熟、產能不受限制。透過逆向歸納法求解零售商定價，進一步求得供應商的利潤，研究發現當新世代產品創新程度低且舊世代產品殘餘價值低時，供應商應採取雙滾動策略；反之則採取單滾動策略。關於產能限制策略，轉嫁分配策略在創新程度與殘餘價值都高時效益最佳。當供應商採用雙產品滾動策略時，零售商應將折扣設置在中低程度，使雙產品滾動策略發揮其最大優勢。

With rapid development of technology and the diversification of customer needs, suppliers are tend to produce various and small amount of products. New products are constantly emerging and product life cycles are much shorter than before. It is more and more common to sell multiple-generation products simultaneously, which are usually similar, substitutable, and compete for the same group of consumers. Therefore, how suppliers decide product rollover strategies has become a significant issue. Additionally, due to the use of similar limited resources between generations and the immaturity of production, new products often face supply shortages when they first launch. Thus, capacity allocation is also a critical focus in this research. We propose a two-period game theory model to study how product rollover strategies and capacity allocation affect the demand and pricing of multi-generation products. Product rollover strategies included single rollover and dual rollover. Capacity allocation strategies consider fixed allocation and turn-and-earn allocation, and we assume the old-generation product production is mature, so the capacity for it is unlimited. Then, we use backward induction to solve retailer's pricing problems. The results show that when the innovation level of new-generation products and the salvage value of old-generation products are low, dual-rollover is the best strategy for supplier; otherwise, single-rollover is preferable. For given rollover strategy, turn-and-earn allocation is always the best strategy when innovation level and salvage value are high. Interestingly, we find retailer can increase profits by offering consumers lower discounts under dual rollover strategy.