逆全球化趨勢下臺灣廠商的營運風險與韌性布局

Abstract

過去，以出口為導向的企業大多倚靠國際專業分工運行生產流程，為尋求最低成本在全球各地採購原物料及零組件、加工製造、裝配…等，並透過自由貿易運輸至各地市場，導致供應鏈變得長且精細。然而，當前的環境狀況與過去大有不同，美中貿易戰、疫情、科技戰、區域衝突、國際對立等因素使全球供應鏈壓力日益升高，企業隨時可能面臨供應鏈中斷的風險。而在外在情況影響下，各國採行貿易保護主義，限制進出口、企業被迫改變全球化的生產模式，轉為區域化分工，使全球化陷入停滯的這股力量即為「逆全球化」趨勢（De-globalization）。 為因應逆全球化趨勢所帶來的變化，企業必須做好完善的策略布局及風險控管。因此，本研究以貢獻臺灣出口經濟的兩大重要產業—半導體及電子業為案例，對臺灣廠商的韌性布局方式進行探討。同時，研究也以問卷調查方式進行實證探究，了解臺灣企業管理者在當前環境下的風險認知以及對於營運韌性塑造的看法。藉由產業案例研討與問卷研究，本研究整理出可有效降低風險衝擊的策略模式—「增強營運韌性」與「提升競爭力」，前者具體實行方式為「多元化供應鏈」；後者實行方式為「增強研發與技術投資」與「深化顧客關係管理」，並提供企業建置營運韌性的建議，進而達到協助臺灣廠商在逆全球化趨勢下持續保持競爭優勢的研究目的。 本研究首先針對臺灣的總體環境進行分析，接著探究逆全球化議題，通過文獻與數據搜索列舉可證明逆全球化正在發生的事例，包含美中關係變化、貿易限制增加、海外直接投資(FDI)減少、製造業回流及科技競爭。通過外部環境分析，本研究發覺在臺灣經濟發展與出口導向息息相關的條件下，面對逆全球化趨勢，臺灣廠商必須盡快調整策略方向以迅速對應國際潮流變化，而臺灣廠商供應鏈上的轉變含括：「短鏈化」，即透過縮短供應鏈提高掌控度，降低風險、「數位化」，即導入數位科技使供應鏈效率及透明性提升、「去風險化」，即設計多條供應鏈的營運方式分散單一供應鏈可能造成的風險、「在地化」，即增強本地投資並集中資源、及「風控系統化」，即以系統性流程強化風險監控與評估。 此外，本研究以產業案例進行探討，發現以台積電為代表的半導體採用的策略布局方式為「多元供應」、「在地供應鏈升級」、「研發創新與顧客關係管理」，以及「構建生態系」；電子業廠商則選擇採用「多元生產基地」、「分散市場」，推動數位、綠能的「雙軸轉型」及「擴增技術投資」進行布局；兩者之間略有差異，半導體業更加重視穩定的供應來源與研發創新，而電子業同時考量到市場風險與未來的技術應用趨勢。另一方面，本研究透過問卷，指出當前的營運風險主要來源於六個層面—「永續及環境風險」、「市場風險」、「科技與創新風險」、「地緣政治風險」、「人員風險」與「經營變動風險」。其中，逆全球化趨勢所代表之「地緣政治風險」在整體排序中位於第三，說明管理者認可該項風險是需要關注的。而在塑造供應鏈韌性的部分，管理者則認為採取「深化顧客關係」、「運用大數據進行需求預測與庫存模擬」以及「增加研發與技術的投資」最能達到營運韌性的效用。 綜合以上研究發現，本研究建議臺灣廠商在逆全球化趨勢下的營運韌性策略應同時考量「顧客」、「組織文化」及「供應鏈防護網」三個層面。首先，通過產業案例分析及問卷調查，本研究發現臺灣廠商對於顧客關係相當重視，且普遍認為強化與顧客的關係對增強營運韌性有顯著效用。其次，在組織文化層面，廠商應強化對風險的識別能力，透過完善的風險治理架構與內部溝通，使組織在風險衝擊下能夠提供足夠資源與支持、整合與協調。在供應鏈防護網上，臺灣廠商應綜合考量營運、業務、財務方面的穩固，並著手打造以數位科技為主的供應鏈，提升敏捷性及透明性，同時強化與供應上合作夥伴的關係。本研究希望藉由三層面的營運韌性策略使臺灣廠商能夠更有效地應對不確定性的風險，在變化莫測的環境下持續生存。

In the past, most companies relied on the international professional division of labor to run their production processes, especially those in export-oriented industries. To seek the lowest cost, companies may divide their operation process into many pieces and produce or outsource worldwide; thus, supply chains become long and delicate. However, the current context has changed a lot from the past. Factors such as the US-China trade war, the epidemic, and international confrontations have put increasing pressure on the global supply chain, increasing the risk of supply chain disruption. Under the influence of external circumstances, companies are forced to change the global operation model and hedge between international powers. Such a force that brings globalization to a standstill and makes companies change is the “de-globalization” trend. To cope with the impacts caused by the de-globalization trend, companies must build business resilience and have their strategic layout complete. Therefore, this study used two important industries that contribute significantly to Taiwan's exports, the semiconductor industry and the electronics industry, as cases to explore the risk prevention methods of Taiwanese enterprises. At the same time, the study also conducted empirical research through questionnaires to excavate the risk perceptions of Taiwanese business managers in the current environment and their perspectives on shaping business resilience. Through industry cases and empirical research, the study analyzed strategic methods that can effectively reduce risks in two ways: “raising operational resilience” and “enhancing competitiveness”. The specific implementation method of the former can be supply chain diversifying; the latter can be R&D strengthening or customer relationship management deepening. On the other hand, this study pointed out through questionnaires that current operational risks mainly come from six levels: “sustainability and environmental risks”, “market risks”, “technology and innovation risks”, “geopolitical risks”, “human risks” and “operational change risks”. For shaping resilience, managers believed that business resilience could be achieved by “deepening customer relationships”, “using big data for demand forecasting and inventory simulation”, and “increasing investment in R&D and new technology”. Last, this study provides enterprises with suggestions on building business resilience, thereby achieving the research purpose of assisting Taiwanese firms to maintain their competitive advantages under the trend of de-globalization. According to the research findings, Taiwanese enterprises are recommended to consider three aspects when building business resilience, including customers, risk culture, and supply chain protection. First, through industry case analysis and questionnaire surveys, the study found that Taiwanese enterprises attach great importance to customer relationships, and it is generally believed that strengthening relationships with customers has a significant effect on enhancing resilience. Second, at the level of organizational culture, enterprises should strengthen their ability in risk identification, and provide sufficient resources and support through a complete risk governance structure and internal communication under risk impacts. In supply chain protection, enterprises should comprehensively consider the stability of operations, business, and finance. The supply chain may be built with digital technology to improve agility and transparency while strengthening relationships with supply chain partners. Through these aspects, Taiwanese enterprises can deal with uncertain risks more effectively and survive in an unpredictable future.