振興五倍券對國內行業經濟影響相關性分析：臺灣的實證研究

Abstract

振興五倍券是政府為因應2021年5月疫情突然爆發所執行的一項政策，自新冠肺炎爆發後，對台灣的經濟造成嚴重停滯與各產業的衰弱，為讓台灣經濟恢復，所以推出此政策來應對，本研究以雙重差分模型來分析在新冠肺炎造成的影響下政府發放振興五倍券是否有助於台灣各行業的復甦。 研究結果顯示，振興五倍券對台灣整體經濟活動具有顯著正向影響。在不同行業中，便利商店、零售式量販店和餐飲業的效果最為顯著，超級市場的效果則呈負向關係。分地區來看，北部、南部與東部地區受益最大，而離島地區的效果相對較弱。總體而言，政府發放振興五倍券的政策對於新冠疫情所造成的經濟衰退影響具正面效益，雖然提升效果有限，但確實能在短期內刺激消費，讓台灣的經濟水平恢復。

The quintuple stimulus voucher is a policy implemented by the government in response to the sudden outbreak of the epidemic in May 2021. Since the outbreak of the new coronavirus pneumonia, it has caused serious stagnation and weakening of various industries in Taiwan's economy. In order to allow Taiwan's economy to recover, this policy was launched. This study uses a difference-in-difference model to analyze whether the government's issuance of quintuple stimulus voucher will help the recovery of various industries in Taiwan under the impact of the new coronavirus. Research results show that the revitalization of quintuple stimulus voucher has a significant positive impact on Taiwan’s overall economic activities. Among different industries, convenience stores, retail stores and catering industries have larger effect, while supermarkets have a negative relationship. In terms of regions, the northern, southern and eastern regions benefited the most, while the effect in outlying island areas was relatively weak. Overall, the government's policy of issuing quintuple stimulus voucher has a positive effect on the economic recession caused by the new coronavirus disease. Although the improvement effect is limited, it can indeed stimulate consumption in the short term and restore Taiwan's economic level.