一橋通雙方：以社會成本與不完全信息討論雙邊移民

Abstract

有關移民與社會成本的過往文獻對於雙邊移民的了解不夠深刻。本文之貢獻於用風險趨避與不完全信息建構一個同時具有雙邊移民與重返移民的模型。此模型的基本概念係社會網絡和信息的關係。社會網絡越大，討厭風險的個人對異國薪水的信息越完整。較完整的信息助於降低風險，讓個人更有可能選擇移民。本模型以個人對異國薪水猜測的分配和信心調整風險。在數字分析内本模型每期都具有雙邊移民和重返移民。

The literature on social capital and migration has not given adequate attention to two-way migration. This paper shows that by using the concepts of incomplete information and risk aversion to model social capital, we can get both two-way and return migration. The basic idea behind the model is that as networks grow, risk-averse individuals have better information about foreign wages. Better information mitigates risk, which makes individuals more likely to migrate. Risk is modeled by adjusting the distribution and confidence individuals have in their guesses about foreign wages. In a numerical analysis the model exhibits both two-way and return migration in every period.