O-RAN趨勢下新世代電信設備的產品轉型策略以O-RU產品的IDM轉型策略為例

Abstract

現行基建設備市場主要由Ericsson、Nokia與Huawei等國際一線供應商所主導，採用的是傳統封閉式架構，不同供應商的設備彼此間無法做到互容，行動通信運營業者常需綁定某一家設備供應商，因選擇性低、交易成本高，造成運營缺乏彈性且被動。 由AT&T、China Mobile、Deutsche Telekom、NTT Docomo與Orange等國際一線行動通信運營商發起成立的O-RAN Alliance，致力推行開放式架構與介面標準化，解決封閉式架構的侷限性，讓不同供應商的設備彼此間可以互容，因此吸引了許多新進電信設備的廠商投入。 開放式架構為電信設備產品提供了有利的競爭條件，能否成為系統廠的IDM產品轉型標的，值得關注與研究。本論文研究的目的是希望透過量化分析的方式，探詢O-RAN技術是否具有進入市場的競爭力？O-RU設備產品是否具有發展IDM商業模式的機會? 以及透過質性分析的方式，建構台灣系統廠從CM/ODM到IDM產品轉型的策略思維。使用的研究方法：(1)量化分析TCO模型，檢視O-RAN技術的成本競爭力；(2)量化分析自建MC-RS模型，探詢O-RU發展IDM商業模式的機會；(3)透過質性分析方式，設計O-RU的IDM轉型策略。得到研究結果：(1)O-RAN的TCO明顯低於D-RAN與C-RAN，O-RAN的電源能源消耗亦低於D-RAN與C-RAN；(2)O-RAN的市占率預期將超越傳統封閉式產品，營收佔比最高的產品為O-RU；(3)透過競爭者標示地圖與AMC評估表的解析，預期O-RU產品有機會發展IDM商業模式。 透過量化分析與質性分析，本論文的研究結論為：(1)透過TCO的量化分析比較，基於O-RAN的電信設備產品，具備衝擊現有市場生態的競爭力，也更符合ESG的要求與對綠色科技的期待；(2)透過設備供應商的營收與電信運營商的資本支出數據之分析，O-RAN產品市占率預期將超越現有傳統封閉式產品，成為基建設備市場的主流；(3)透過本論文自建MC-RS模型的量化分析，與產業動態競爭分析，O-RU設備產品具有發展IDM商業模式的機會；(4)應用鑽石模型的質性分析，設計O-RU產品的IDM轉型策略，與建構轉型策略的思維。

The current infrastructure equipment market is mainly dominated by international Tier-1 vendors such as Ericsson, Nokia and Huawei. It adopts a traditional architecture, equipment from different vendors cannot be interoperable with each other. Mobile Network Operators (MNOs) are often bound to a certain equipment vendor, thus resulted in inflexible and passive operations due to lower selectivity and higher transaction costs. The O-RAN Alliance was initiated and established by international leading MNOs such as AT&T, China Mobile, Deutsche Telekom, NTT Docomo and Orange. It is committed to promoting open architecture and standardized interfaces, solving the limitations of traditional architecture, and allowing the equipment from different vendors interoperable with each other. Thus, this new technology appeals to quite a few companies. Open architecture brings favorable competitive conditions to teleco equipment products. Whether it can become the target of IDM product transformation for manufacturers is worthy of attention and research. The purpose of this thesis is, through quantitative analysis, to explore the competitiveness of O-RAN technology to enter the market, and the opportunities for O-RU vendors to adopt IDM business model. Also construct the strategic thinking for O-RU vendors regarding the product transformation from CM/ODM to IDM through qualitative analysis. The approaching methodologies used are: (1) Quantitative analysis of the TCO model to examine the cost competitiveness of O-RAN technology; (2) Quantitative analysis of the own-built MC-RS model to explore the opportunities for O-RU vendor to adopt IDM business models.; (3) Design of IDM transformation strategy for O-RU product through qualitative analysis. Key results been obtained are: (1) The TCO of O-RAN is significantly lower than those of D-RAN and C-RAN, and so does the power energy consumption; (2) The market share of O-RAN is expected to exceed that of traditional architecture, and the product with the highest revenue share is O-RU; (3) Through the analysis of the competitor map and AMC table, it is expected that O-RU vendors will have opportunities to adopt the IDM business model. Through both quantitative and qualitative analysis, in this thesis, several key conclusions obtained are: (1) Through TCO analysis and comparison, O-RAN shows that it's competitive to impact the existing market ecology, also shows it's more compliant to ESG requirements, and more in line with expectations to green technology; (2) Through data analysis of equipment vendors’ revenue and MNOs’ capital expenditure, the market share of O-RAN is expected to exceed existing traditional architecture, and becomes the mainstream of the infrastructure equipment market; (3) Through the quantitative analysis of the own-built MC-RS model and the dynamic competition analysis of industry, it shows that O-RU vendors have opportunities to adopt the IDM business models; (4) In this thesis, the Diamond Model had been applied for the qualitative analysis of IDM transformation strategy, the design of IDM transformation strategy for O-RU vendors, and the constructing the strategic thinking of corporate transformation.