企業環境績效與分析師多年期盈餘預測特性之關聯

Abstract

本研究探討企業的環境分數與分析師長期盈餘預測特性間關聯，研究模型分別納入分析師長短期盈餘差額、分析師多年期盈餘偏差、分析師多年期盈餘誤差為應變數，觀察分析師如何解讀企業所獲得環境分數的經濟涵義，以及環境績效是否被認為對預測未來盈餘成長具有資訊意涵。企業之環境保護作為或需要大量投資，或顯著影響當期帳列費用，惟其效益往往在長期才能顯現，增加解讀環境分數意涵的難度。研究結果顯示企業環境績效對三項應變數皆有顯著影響，特別是對環境績效優異的企業。分析師予環境分數較高企業較高的盈餘成長性預測，惟同時仍相對低估長期盈餘表現，此顯示分析師預測尚未充分反映優異之企業環境績效的未來效益，分析師或高估投入環境保護的成本面，或低估環境績效優異的效益面。而環境表現較優異企業的分析師多年期盈餘預測誤差較低。 此外，本研究發現即使環境分數的缺失，亦提供長期盈餘預測的額外資訊，將環境分數缺失納入盈餘預測模型可望提升預測品質。同時，環境分數的評分細項包括環境排放、資源利用和環境創新等分數分別對多年期盈餘預測特性具邊際解釋力。

This paper examines the association between corporate environmental performance (EP) and the properties of analysts' multi-year earnings forecasts. It tests the difference between long- and short-term forecasts to explore analysts' perceived economic implications of EP, as well as the bias and accuracy of multi-year forecasts to determine if EP provides informative insights for future earnings as well as helps improve the informativeness of analyst forecasts. Environmental expenditures may require substantial capital and time to realize the benefits and/or add to the current-year expenses of the companies, posing challenges for the market to understand their value implication. Research results show significant association between EP with multi-year forecasts, particularly for corporates with outstanding projected EPS. Companies with stronger EP receive higher earnings growth evaluations. The analysts, nevertheless, still appear to underestimate their future earnings. The findings suggest that multi-year forecasts may overestimate the costs of environmental protection and/or underestimate its benefits of excellent forecasts. Moreover, firms with strong EP are accompanied by lower analyst forecast errors. Furthermore, even the measure of whether a firm is with missing environmental scores still provide supplementary insights into multi-year forecasts. Namely, including the explanatory variable regarding the availability of environmental scores helps enhance the predictability of multi-year forecasts. Specific components of environmental scores, including emissions, resource use and environmental innovation, have marginal explanatory power for long-term forecasts. The study supports the incorporation of the non-financial variables of environmental performance, for firm value evaluations.