政策與總體經濟變數對電動車銷售的影響分析

Abstract

本文分析影響電動車銷量的因素，並特別聚焦在總體經濟環境的影響。利用2010年到2021年間27個歐洲國家資料，本文透過固定效果模型發現兩年前的人均GDP成長率提高1%，將導致本年度的電動車銷售量增加6.373%；相反地，兩年前的利率增加1%將導致本年度的電動車銷售量減少35.27%。此外，本文發現充電樁以及電動車持有稅優惠對電動車銷量的正向影響。

本文亦透過追蹤資料向量自迴歸模型分析總體經濟環境與電動車銷量的動態影響。本文發現人均GDP成長率上升的衝擊，將對當年度及一年後的電動車銷售量產生正向影響。值得留意的是，此正向影響在衝擊發生的一年後達到最高點。而在利率方面，利率上升的衝擊將導致電動車銷售量的負面影響，且此負面影響帶有時間滯後，衝擊發生的一年後，負面影響才開始具統計顯著性。

根據以上論述，我們建議在預測電動車需求量時關注人均GDP成長率和利率。增加充電樁數量以及實施經常性的政策誘因則可刺激電動車市場的銷量。

Over the past decade, the electric vehicle (EV) market has witnessed a surge in sales, prompting a crucial examination of the factors influencing EV demand. In contrast to prior research, which primarily focused on socioeconomic factors, our study takes a different approach by integrating macroeconomic variables and emphasizing the durable goods attributes of EVs through distributed lag and panel VAR modeling.

Drawing from data spanning 27 European countries from 2010 to 2021, our analysis reveals positive lagged effects of GDP per capita and negative lagged effects of interest rates on EV demand. Specifically, a 1% increase in GDP per capita growth rate from two years prior results in a 6.373% increase in current-year EV registrations. In contrast, a 1% increase in the interest rate from two years ago leads to a 35.27% decrease in current-year EV registrations. We also identify the significant positive influence of charging infrastructure and ownership tax benefits.

Additionally, our impulse response analysis suggests that a one standard deviation shock to the GDP per capita growth rate results in a positive impact from the current year to one year later. The impact peaks one year after the initial shock. On the other hand, a one standard deviation shock to the interest rate leads to a negative impact on EV registrations with time lags.

Based on these findings, we suggest that EV-related businesses pay close attention to GDP per capita and interest rates when projecting EV demand. For policymakers, it is advisable to prioritize the expansion of charging infrastructure and to maintain recurring incentive policies to support the growth of the EV market.