帝國建立趨勢與信用風險關係之研究

Abstract

過去文獻Gantchev et al. (2020)說明帝國建立趨勢(Empire Building)會降低公司價值，而Merton (1974)所提出的信用結構型模型又說明公司價值降低會使得公司更容易違約，信用風險隨之上升，因此本研究針對帝國建立趨勢與公司信用風險之間的關係進行探討。首先本篇論文研究帝國建立趨勢會如何影響公司信用風險，而實證結果發現公司經理人的帝國建立趨勢會讓公司信用風險上升。接著本研究進而觀察公司經理人的過度自信特質(Overconfidence)、公司參與企業社會責任程度(CSR)、投資人對於市場之樂觀情緒(Sentiment)和總體經濟狀況(Macroeconomy)會如何影響帝國建立趨勢對於公司信用風險之關係，實證結果發現公司經理如果越過度自信，該關係會更加惡化，對於信用風險之影響會較嚴重；反之當公司參與企業社會責任程度越高、總體經濟狀況較好的時候，對於信用風險之影響會較輕；至於投資人對於市場之樂觀情緒則並未顯著對該關係產生影響。最後本篇論文研究公司經理人在觀察到公司信用風險上升後會如何調整其帝國建立趨勢之策略，實證結果發現公司經理人對於信用風險上升採用的對策偏向為「賭一把」，試圖透過一局大贏逆轉頹勢，但這樣的案例似乎並不多見，導致情況回到最一開始，帝國建立趨勢會正向影響公司信用風險，揭露了帝國建立趨勢的危險。

The previous literature by Gantchev et al. (2020) illustrates that the Empire Building might reduce company value, while the credit structure model suggests that the decrease in company value could make it more susceptible to default, leading to an increase in credit risk. Therefore, this study aims to explore the relationship between the Empire Building and company credit risk. First of all, this paper investigates how the Empire Building affects company credit risk, and empirical results suggest that managerial Empire Building tendencies contribute to an increase in company credit risk. Furthermore, this study observes how managerial traits, here meaning overconfidence, Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) engagement, investor sentiment toward the market, and macroeconomic conditions influence the relationship between the Empire Building and company credit risk. The empirical findings indicate that managerial overconfidence exacerbates this relationship, making the impact on credit risk more severe. Conversely, higher levels of CSR engagement by companies and better macroeconomic conditions mitigate the impact on credit risk. However, investor sentiment towards the market does not significantly affect this relationship. Lastly, this paper examines how managerial responses change when they observe an increase in company credit risk due to Empire Building tendencies. The empirical results reveal that managerial responses to increased credit risk tend to lean towards taking risky strategies in an attempt to turn the tide with a single significant victory. However, such cases are seemingly rare, resulting in a return to the initial scenario where the Empire Building positively influences company credit risk, highlighting the dangers associated with Empire Building tendencies.