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標題: | 浮力式光伏電源可靠性和能量回饋的整合分析方法 A Holistic Analysis Approach for Power Reliabilityand Energy Return of Floating Photovoltaic Deployment |
作者: | 陳慶豐 Ching-Feng Chen |
指導教授: | 游景雲 Gene Jiing-Yun You |
關鍵字: | 溫室氣體,光伏,電力供應可靠性,能量回饋,能源投資回報率,成本效益比,CO2排放, greenhouse gas,photovoltaic,power supply reliability,energy return,energy return on investment,benefit-cost ratio,CO2 emission, |
出版年 : | 2024 |
學位: | 博士 |
摘要: | 隨著傳統火力發電排放溫室氣體(GHG)對環境的嚴重影響,近年來發展可再生能源引起了全球的關注。太陽能是最廣泛使用的可持續能源之一。與其他綠色能源替代方案相比,它具有豐富、可用性、可擴展性、多功能性、環境影響小以及低運營成本等明顯優勢。然而,它也存在一些限制,包括間歇性、低能量密度和土地限制。
為了應對太陽能發電的缺點,台灣能源局於2016年9月8日推出了“兩年太陽能發展計劃”,以推動太陽能產業的發展,特別是浮力式光伏(FPV)系統。可再生能源系統電力供應的可靠性、其能量回饋(ER)以及其經濟影響之間的相互關係對於理解可持續能源解決方案至關重要。 強大而可靠的電源供應提高了可再生能源系統的吸引力,而良好的ER可確保其可持續性。經濟考量,包括初始投資成本、運營費用和比較經濟分析等因素,則會進一步地影響到決策過程及可再生能源技術的廣泛應用。這種複雜的相互作用突出了需要以一種綜合方法,整合其可靠性、ER和經濟評估,據以推動對可持續能源解決方案的理解和實施。 雖然先前的研究已成功地發展了光伏(PV)系統效率、可靠性和安全性的模型分析。然而,它卻尚未引入一種更簡潔的指標來評估FPV電站的電源供應可靠性。此外,儘管現有的文獻已廣泛地討論了FPV的環境影響、生產所耗用的能源和系統安裝,但進一步地探索FPV電源供應的可靠性顯有必要。因它除可以擴大該領域的知識基礎外並可幫助投資者做出有利的決策。 以Agongdian Reservoir FPV電站的成功的商業運營模式作為案例研究(案例研究1),由於與天氣條件、設備故障、老化和太陽能系統中固有的電網併網相關問題的不確定性,評估其電源供應的可靠性顯得十分重要。在這項研究中,作者結合了統計和超越機率的分析方法,以Agongdian Reservoir FPV作為案例研究,探討了FPV的可靠性分析。結果表明,本硏究所採用的方法可以提供當地的電力局電源供應的平衡指標。它有助於負載分配措施的實施或增加每日系統的發電量以提高PV系統的可靠性。 太陽能長期以來一直被認為它的ER比傳統化石燃料低。儘管後者在初級階段的能源投資回報率(EROI)超過25:1,但在最終階段會降至約6:1(Brockway等人,2019)。鑑於多年來太陽能技術的創新,調查它的ER是否因技術的創新而增長變得越來越重要。因為這項研究對於電力公司和決定投資FPV項目的投資者而言,是一項重要的考量因素。此外,考慮地理位置和陽光條件等因素,評估ER變得不可或缺,特別是對於國際投資者而言。 在陸地FPV系統(如Agongdian水庫)成功運營之後,台灣彰化工業區的一項容量為181MWp的世界上最大的離岸FPV(OFPV)項目於2021年11月完成並投入使用。在本論文中提出的另一個案例研究(案例研究2)中,作者從生命周期能量分析(LCEA)的角度分析了該OFPV項目的能量回饋。結果表明,本OFPV項目的實施可以在30年的生命周期內減少約2079.7百萬噸二氧化碳排放,EPBT為0.97年,EROI在1700 kWh/m²•year光強條件下約為31。這些數值超過或接近先前研究的上限。 最終的案例研究(案例研究3)整合了經濟比較分析的方法。它分析了台灣Agongdian和日本Yamaura水庫FPV具有相同系統安裝容量的投資方案。研究結果顯示,國際投資人投資日本更為有利,因為它的淨現值(NPV)在5%折現率下達到7269.8。內部收益率(IRR)和成本效益比(BCR)分別為10.1%和1.71,回本點約為48.5%。我們可以確定兩地不同的電費價格是影響FPV投資盈利的關鍵因素。 另一方面、涵蓋十五年的有限樣本數據表明,更廣泛的時間尺度取樣可以提高調查的效果。未來的研究應該著眼於研究FPV系統在水體上的最佳安裝比例,考量水質和經濟最大化等變數。此外,晴天和多雲天氣間太陽能發電的波動強化了天氣因素在確定太陽能是否可作為可再生能源的可靠性和一致性方面的重要性。研究人員和利益相關者有必要經常分析這些變化以提高太陽能系統在不同天氣條件下的可預測性和效率,這是同儕們未來研究時應留意的問題。 全面的LCEA可確保吾人全面性地瞭解產品的可持續性。它有助於決策者更明智地決策,以改進生產過程或尋找替代方案。案例研究2受制於製造商所生產的產品種類單一性,在作者進行調查時難以垂直整合產品上下游的所有的生產階段。此外,該研究的範圍也未包括系統的運輸和最終的拆除處理階段。作者在此指出,這些階段的能耗,雖然並未超過本研究中所設定的LCEA的1%截止規則,但如能改進,將有利於提高PV ER評估的準確性,因為它們可能會影響到吾人對其潛在的能效和環境的影響產生了觀點上的偏差。未來的研究應探討產品的整個垂直整合的生產鏈,以令LCEA的評估更為準確。此外、鑑於作者所獲得的有限但堪用的財務訊息,作者建議同儕們應儘可能地獲取更多的數據以進行綜合分析。在本研究中作者並沒有考慮到如極端天氣等不確定因素,未來進一步地研究它們對系統的影響有其必要性。 綜上,在本論文中所呈現的三個案例研究,恊同地拓寬了可再生能源的知識領域,它們提供了FPV領域實證上的見解,形塑了此一領域的未來,令其向更清潔和更高效的能源系統轉變。在本文中,不論是FPV的電源供應可靠性分析,或基於LCEA的OFPV的ER評估,或是Agongdian和Yamakura水庫的FPV的經濟比較分析都為可再生能源領域做出了顯見的貢獻。它們的每項研究都涉及了浮力式光伏系統的重要議題,為決策者及利益相關人士提供做出明智的決策和戰略規劃所需要的見解。 In recent years, the global spotlight has increasingly focused on developing renewable energy sources due to the severe environmental repercussions of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from traditional thermal power generation. Among these, solar energy is one of the most extensively utilized sustainable options. Its advantages have been widely recognized, including abundance, availability, scalability, versatility, minimal environmental impact, and comparatively low operational costs when contrasted with other green energy alternatives. Solar energy also poses limitations, including intermittency, low energy density, and land constraints. Addressing the disadvantages of solar power generation, the Taiwan Bureau of Energy introduced the "Two-Year Photovoltaic Promotion Plan" on September 8, 2016, to advance the solar energy industry's development, particularly in Floating Photovoltaic (FPV) systems. The interrelationship between the reliability of a renewable energy system’s power supply, its energy return (ER), and its economic implications is crucial to understanding sustainable energy solutions. A robust and reliable power supply enhances the attractiveness of renewable energy systems. In contrast, a favorable ER ensures its sustainability. The economic considerations, encompassing factors such as initial investment costs, operational expenses, and comparative economic analyses, further guide the decision-making process and impact the broader adoption of renewable energy technologies. This intricate interplay underscores the need for a comprehensive approach that integrates reliability, ER, and economic assessments to advance the understanding and implementation of sustainable energy solutions. Previous research has effectively constructed models to analyze the efficiency, reliability, and safety of photovoltaic (PV) systems. However, a straightforward indicator for assessing the power supply reliability of floating PV (FPV) deployments has yet to be introduced. Moreover, while existing literature extensively covers the environmental impacts, energy production, and system installation of FPV, there persists a necessity for further investigation into the reliability of FPV power supply. Such exploration will enrich the knowledge base in this domain and facilitate investors in making informed decisions. Considering the successful commercial operation of the Agongdian Reservoir FPV station as a case study (Case Study 1), the assessment of its power supply reliability assumes paramount importance. This necessity arises from the uncertainties associated with weather conditions, equipment malfunctions, aging, and grid integration issues within solar power systems. In this study, the author employs a combination of statistical and Exceedance Probabilistic analysis methods to delve into the reliability analysis of FPV, utilizing the Agongdian Reservoir FPV as a focal point. The findings reveal that the methodologies employed offer a well-rounded indicator of local power supply, thereby facilitating the implementation of load-shedding measures or the augmentation of daily system generation to bolster the reliability of PV systems. For many years, people have perceived solar energy to yield a lower Energy Return (ER) than traditional fossil fuels. While the latter boasts an Energy Return on Investment (EROI) exceeding 25:1 in its primary stages, it dwindles to approximately 6:1 in its final stages (Brockway et al., 2019). Given the ongoing innovation in solar energy technology, investigating whether its ER has grown due to technological advancements has become increasingly pertinent. This research is paramount for power companies and investors deciding on FPV projects. Moreover, considering factors such as geographical location and sunlight conditions, assessing ER becomes indispensable, especially for international investors. Following the successful operation of onshore FPV systems (such as the Agongdian Reservoir), the world's largest Offshore FPV (OFPV) project with a capacity of 181MWp in Taiwan's Changhua Industrial Zone was completed and commissioned in November 2021. In another case study (Case Study 2) proposed in this paper, the author analyzes the energy feedback of this OFPV project from the perspective of Lifecycle Energy Analysis (LCEA). The results indicate that the implementation of this OFPV project can reduce approximately 2079.7 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions over a 30-year lifecycle, with an Energy Payback Time (EPBT) of 0.97 years and an EROI of approximately 31 under light intensity conditions of 1700 kWh/m²•year. These values surpass or approach the upper limits of previous studies. The final case study (Case Study 3) adopts a comprehensive approach to comparing and analyzing the investment schemes of Taiwan's Agongdian Reservoir FPV and Japan's Yamaura Dam, both with the same system installation capacity. The findings indicate that the investment in Japan is more advantageous, yielding a Net Present Value (NPV) of 7269.8 at a discount rate of 5%. The Benefit-Cost Ratio (BCR) and Internal Rate of Return (IRR) stand at 1.71 and 10.1%, respectively, with a break-even point of approximately 48.5%. Critical factors influencing the profitability of FPV investments include disparities in electricity bill prices between the two locations. However, the limited sample data spanning fifteen years suggests that extending the time-scale sampling could enhance the effectiveness of the investigation. Future research endeavors may study the optimal installation ratio for FPV systems on water bodies, considering variables such as water quality and economic maximization. Moreover, fluctuations in solar power generation between sunny and cloudy conditions underscore the significance of weather patterns and atmospheric factors in determining the reliability and consistency of solar energy as a renewable power source. Researchers and industry stakeholders often analyze these variations to improve the predictability and efficiency of solar energy systems in diverse weather conditions, representing an issue that future research should address. Moreover, the fluctuations in solar power generation between sunny and cloudy conditions underscore the significance of weather patterns and atmospheric factors in determining the reliability and consistency of solar energy as a renewable power source. Researchers and industry stakeholders often analyze these variations to improve the predictability and efficiency of solar energy systems in diverse weather conditions, representing an issue that future research should notice. A comprehensive LCEA ensures a thorough comprehension of the sustainability of a product, enabling more informed decision-making regarding improvements or alternatives in the production process. However, Case Study 2, constrained by an investigation of the manufacturer's products produced, needs vertical integration across various production stages. Additionally, the study's scope excludes the system's final transportation and disposal stages. The author observes that considering the energy consumption of these stages, though deemed insignificant and not estimated in this study per the 1% cutoff rule, could enhance the accuracy of PV ER assessment if addressed. Their exclusion contributes to a limited and potentially skewed understanding of the system's energy efficiency and environmental impact. Future research should explore the entire production chain in vertical segments for a more precise LCEA assessment. Acknowledging limitations in the availability of financial information, the author recommends acquiring more data for a comprehensive analysis. It emphasizes the need to account for uncertain factors such as extreme weather, prompting further research on their impact on the system and advancements in solar technology. In summary, the case studies presented in this dissertation collectively advance knowledge in renewable energy, offering practical insights to shape the future renewable energy potential and drive the transition towards cleaner and more efficient energy systems. The research on power supply reliability analysis of FPV, ER assessment of OFPV based on LCEA perspectives, and comparative economic analysis of FPVs at the Agongdian Reservoir and Yamakura Dam make valuable contributions to the renewable energy domain. Each study addresses critical aspects of floating photovoltaic systems, providing insights crucial for informed decision-making and strategic planning in the renewable energy sector. |
URI: | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/92019 |
DOI: | 10.6342/NTU202400056 |
全文授權: | 同意授權(全球公開) |
顯示於系所單位: | 土木工程學系 |
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