現金股利與庫藏股間的決策關係

Abstract

本研究以多元迴規模型分析，探討現金股利與買回庫藏股這兩種現金盈餘分配方式間的關係。從公司買回庫藏股後，是否會影響現金股利之發放，有無排擠效應；及現金股利發放率的改變是否會影響公司採取庫藏股買回程度雙方面來探討。並分別採用全體上市櫃公司、與宣告實施庫藏股以維護股東權益之公司兩種樣本，再分別探究時間序列與跨公司的效果。實證結果發現，庫藏股買回對現金股利發放並不具有替代關係，而現金股利發放率差異亦不影響庫藏股買回。在決策現金股利發放率時，庫藏股買回可能是考慮因素之一，抑或是實施庫藏股買回的公司傾向發放較高現金股利率；而在制定庫藏股買回決策時，現金股利發放率之改變並不是公司憑藉的因素。在已宣告實施庫藏股買回的公司中，現金股利發放率之高低取決於自由現金流量之高低，而庫藏股買回比率高低取決於非營業淨利比率之高低。

This paper investigates the relationship between the two methods to payout cash earnings to shareholders, cash dividends and stock repurchases, using multi-regression analysis. Is there any substitution effect that cash dividends payout ratio get influenced after stock repurchasing? Or do differences between cash dividends payout ratios affect the level that corporate might buy back the stocks? This paper tries to find the relationship in two ways, using two kinds of samples, all listing companies and companies that announce to buy back their stocks, then analyses both cross sectional and time series effect. The results show that there is no substitution effect between stock repurchases and cash dividends, and the differences between the cash dividends payout ratio do not affect share repurchases. When companies plan to payout cash dividends, the extent that companies repurchased stocks might be one of the factors to consider. Or companies intend to have higher cash dividend ratios will intend to do larger repurchases. When companies set up the repurchase policy, the changes of the cash dividend payout ratio might not be contemplated. Among the companies that announce to do share repurchases, if free cashflow is higher, the cash dividend payout ratio is higher; and if non-operating income is higher, the share buyback ratio is higher.