代議制是否會導致人們更傾向於選擇高機率但影響範圍較小的選項？——一項實驗研究

Abstract

有些政策導致的災害發生機率大但影響範圍小(HPSI)，像是火力發電；而有些政策導致的災害發生機率小但影響範圍大(LPLI)，像是核能發電。在政策制定上，有時必須在兩種都有可能導致災害的政策中權衡取捨。此外，不同國家在這樣的議題上使用不同的政治制度來決定政策方向。有的國家實行公投（直接民主），而有的國家實行代議制度（間接民主）。為了研究這兩種不同的政治制度是否會影響到上述類型的政策選擇，我們設計了一個實驗室實驗，讓受試者被隨機分配在兩種不同的政治制度下做出選擇。實驗結果顯示，在間接民主下，受試者更傾向選擇會導致 HPSI 災害的政策。此外，相較於直接民主，間接民主下受試者花了更長的時間做決策。但是，無論在哪一組，平均來說，選擇兩種政策的反應時間則沒有顯著差異。總的來說，我們發現決策制度的確會影響到選擇的方案。

Some policies, such as thermal power generation, can result in a high probability of disasters with a small impact area (HPSI), while others, such as nuclear power generation, can result in low probability disasters with a large impact area (LPLI). In policy-making, it is sometimes necessary to trade-offs between these two policies, which may both result in some disasters. On the other hand, different countries use different political systems to decide policy direction in such issues. Some countries implement referendums (direct democracy), while others implement representative systems (indirect democracy). To study whether these two different political systems would affect the choice of policies mentioned above, we conducted a laboratory experiment where participants were randomly assigned to make choices under the two different political systems. The experimental results showed that under indirect democracy, participants were more inclined to choose policies that would lead to HPSI disasters. However, there was no significant difference in response time in choosing between the two policies in either group. Additionally, participants under indirect democracy spent more time making decisions. Overall, we found that the decision-making system does affect the choice of policy.