交通流量對交通事故發生次數之影響

Abstract

根據勞工局2022年的職業災害統計資料，因公路交通事故造成的死亡人數高達274人，占全部保險給付人次的53%。根據交通部運輸研究所對交通事故成本的估計，2022年因交通事故所產生的成本約為6,480億元，約占當年GDP的2.9%。 本研究使用台北市資料大平台的 111 年台北市 A1 及 A2 類交通事故明細加上臺北市交通管制工程處所公布的 111 年台北市交通流量調查資料以及路口是否有專屬左轉道、是否有機車待轉區等路口特徵，以 Double-Lasso 作為研究方法。本研究結果顯示交通流量對交通事故次數具有顯著影響，當交通流量每增加 1%，交通事故次數會增加 0.33% 左右。

According to the statistics from the Ministry of Labor in 2022, the number of fatalities caused by road traffic accidents reached 274, accounting for 53% of all insurance claims. Based on the estimation of the Transport Research Institute of the Ministry of Transportation, the cost generated by traffic accidents in 2022 was approximately 648 billion NT dollars, which accounted for about 2.9% of the GDP in 2022. This research used the detailed information of Class A1 and A2 traffic accidents in Taipei City from the Taipei City Data Platform for the year 2022, along with the traffic flow survey data published by the Taipei City Traffic Engineering Office. The study also considered intersection characteristics such as the presence of exclusive left-turn lanes and motorcycle waiting zones. The Double-Lasso method was be used as the research approach. The results of this study indicate a significant influence of traffic flow on the number of traffic accidents. For every 1% increase in traffic flow, the number of traffic accidents would increase by approximately 0.33%.