行動通訊世代轉換時電信產業整併關鍵因素與影響之研究 – 以台灣4G~5G世代為例

Abstract

行動通訊服務已與人類生活密不可分，電信業者透過提供屬於公共財的無線電波頻率的取得，運營無線網路傳輸的服務，是政府的特許行業，與其他非管制類的商業模式不同。台灣行動電信市場自1997年開放民營化至今，各世代均有新的電信業者的加入或退出，促使業者間有好幾波整併潮的發生，但大體而言，從3G世代起整體市場即呈現一個高度飽和、高度寡占、高度競爭的規模經濟狀況，其中，中華電信、台灣大哥大與遠傳電信等3大電信的市占加總更是超過85%。2014年中後，台灣4G服務正式上路，2家小型業者台灣之星與亞太電信在各自合併3G小業者後，採破壞性低價策略加入競爭行列，快速取得市場。2018年4G進入成熟期後，各家業者的營收與獲利在高度競爭下，受價格擠壓持續衰退。3大電信因為用戶基礎較大，盈利與現金流遠高於台灣之星與亞太電信2家小業者，獲利侵蝕的耐受期較長。小業者為了求生存，選擇持續價格競爭對抗苦撐，仍會侵蝕3大電信的市占與營收，迫使其降價抗衡。4G時代電信業者間這樣的價格競爭循環結果，對整體產業發展更加不利。 台灣在2020年Q3邁入5G時代，需投入新一代的網路基礎建設；5G除新的頻譜標金須攤提外，因其高頻短波長的特性，欲達到同樣涵蓋，所需的基站數是4G的3~4倍，而初期5G基站價格又是4G的3倍，資金需求大增。從3G以後，各世代電信業者投入網路建設的營收成本效益（Revenue/Cost Ratio）逐漸下降，各業者投資回收期拉長。面對5G新世代的高資本競賽，在全球電信產業證明大者恆大下，台灣的大業者也開始思考併購的策略選項，同時小業者的股東也在多年虧損下尋求出場的機會。如果5家業者能整併，即可減少重複投資，用戶整合後也可以創造更大的經濟規模，因此各業者皆有改變競爭現狀的動機，以免運用轉換5G即使能成功抬高用戶資費單價，但長期仍會因過度競爭而再次陷入價格戰的輪迴。 新通訊世代的導入及演進，是整併的契機。回顧台灣電信史上，電信業者間整併並不少見，往往發生在新通訊世代導入的前後幾年，主因是新的頻譜標金、網路投資金額龐大，故為了快速獲得更大的用戶規模或降低投資成本，各業者均會選在此時期考量是否納入併購選項。5G開台一年半後，2021年12月30日由行動通訊第二大的台灣大哥大宣布合併第四大的台灣之星，爾後引發第3大遠傳電信於2022年2月25日亦跟進合併第五大的亞太電信的大事件，意謂著電信市場在5G時代正式進入整併潮，也是電信史上唯一沒有小業、3大電信獨大的時期，這將是嶄新的競爭局面。本研究採用質性研究方法試圖探討 （1） 4G~5G行動通訊世代轉換時，電信產業會發生整併的背景、動機與關鍵因素，（2）更集中的電信市場，為產業發展與社會福利所帶來的影響，（3）電信市場整併後，3大電信未來的策略選項與建議。最後，本研究總結（1）4G~5G行動通訊世代轉換時電信產業整併最大關鍵因素為頻譜與網路整合的綜效，其次是擴大用戶基礎與市占。（2）電信市場由5家整併為3家局面後，產業將由「價格競爭」轉向「價值競爭」，但市占更接近的「新三雄」競爭性不會減弱，同時社會福利可透過政府機關合併審查的附負擔條款保障。（3）3家電信的利基不同，整併潮後所擬定的策略方向或有差異，但合併後的新台灣大哥大與新遠傳電信的目標不外乎追求的是在營運、管理、財務面實現1 + 1 > 2綜效，提升合併後的企業價值，以挑戰中華電信的龍頭地位，故合併後各項整合的規劃與執行才是決定最終成效的關鍵。最後，電信產業間未來也應就整體產業發展與共同利益相互合作，尋找更多5G的新商機與應用。

Human life today is deeply affected by mobile communication technologies and services. Mobile services are delivered through the pre-acquisition of radio frequency spectrum, which is licensed by government. Therefore, the mobile business itself is very much different from other non-regulated business models. Since the deregulation of Taiwan’s mobile industry in 1997, mergers and acquisitions among carriers are often seen along with new players entered or exited in each generation. The combined market share of the 3 major carriers, Chunghwa Telecom, Taiwan Mobile, and Far EasTone Telecom, has surpassed 85% ever since 3G, thus the resulting highly saturated, highly oligopolistic, and highly competitive mobile marketplace becomes the norm. After the commercial launch of 4G services in 2014, two new entrants, Taiwan Star and Asia Pacific Telecom, joined the mobile league with each merged one of the 3G small carriers. By undertaking distruptive price strategies to tackle the market, both quickly expanded their base in the beginning, and significantly undercut the incumbents. As a result, when 4G entered maturity stage after 2018, the revenue and profitability of each carrier continued to decline due to intense competition and price reduction. Given by larger user base and higher average revenue per user (ARPU), the 3 majors had longer period of resilience against price erosion. On the other hand, the 2 smaller carriers had no choice but to continue to compete over price for survivial, thus causing the 3 majors to further lose their shares and counteract by price cut as well. Hence, the price war among the mobile carriers in the 4G era is all in all unfavorable to the whole mobile industry.

In 2020 Q3, Taiwan entered the 5G era and led to a new round of spectrum and network infrastructure investment. Not only did the spectrum bidding outcome went sky rock high, but also due to the high frequency nature, to maintain the same coverage, the number of 5G base stations required is 3~4 times that of 4G, not to mention the cost is 3 times that of 4G at the beginning, result in a significant increase in capital. Since the 3G mobile generation, the revenue-cost ratio of mobile carrier's network investment has gradually deteriorated, while the payback period has been pro-longed. The "Consolidation" phenomenon in the telecommunication sector around the globe during the 4G~5G transition blostered the evergrande nature of the business, and triggered the majors in Taiwan to consider strategic options for mergers and acquisitions horizontally. At the same time, shareholders of small carriers were as well seeking for exit after suffering years of losses. If the mobile carriers in Taiwan could be further consolidated, not only duplications in investments could be avoided, but expanded economies of scale could also be instantly achieved. Hence, each carrier had their own motivation to change the status quo of the competition, and eradicate the vicious cycle of price war once for all. Introduction and evolution of new mobile communication technologies can always be cited as a trigger for market consolidation. If we revisit the history of Taiwan's telecommunications industry, mergers between mobile carriers are not uncommon and often occur in the years before and after the introduction of a new generation. This is mainly due to the heavy capital investments in new spectrum and network deployment. Carriers have strong incentives for mergers and acquisitions during this tranisition period, given by the upsides of quick base expansion or cost amortization. A year and a half after the launch of 5G, on December 30, 2021, Taiwan's second-largest mobile company, Taiwan Mobile, announced the merger with the fourth-largest, Taiwan Star. Later this declaration soon induced counter move by the third-largest, FarEasTone Telecom's merger with the fifth-largest, Asia Pacific Telecom, on February 25, 2022. This signifies that the telecommunications industry in Taiwan has formally entered a period of consolidation in the 5G era, and a new competitive landscape will be shaped where small players will no longer exist.

This qualitative study aims to explore: (1) The background, motivation, and key factors of mobile industry consolidation during the transition from 4G to 5G. (2) The impact of a more concentrated mobile market on industry progression as well as social welfare. (3) The future strategic options and recommendations for the 3 majors in the post-consolidated telecommunications market. After academic research and analysis, this study concludes the following findings: (1) The major denominator for mobile industry consolidation during the transition from 4G to 5G is the synergy of spectrum and network integration, follows by user base and market share expansion. (2) After the mobile players consolidate from 5 to 3 in Taiwan, we foresee the marketplace will shift from "Price Competition" to "Value Competition”, but the degree of competition is still expected to be tense even if the market will be considerably more concentrated. Meanwhile, the study furthermore reveals that competitive shortfalls and social welfare concerns raised by the mergers can be eased through the means of compulsory conditions of granting during the regulatory proceeding. (3) Going forward after consolidation completes, despite the future strategy of the major 3 may differ due to different niches, we believe the common goal of the 2 post-merged carriers, New Taiwan Mobile and New FarEasTone Telecom will be similar, that is to maximize the synergy in operation, management and finance, in order to escalate their post-merger enterprise value, in addition to challenge the leading position of Chunghua Telecom. It is also suggested that the planning and execution efficiency of the post merger integration will ultimately dictate each’s final outcome. Last but not least, in the coming 5G era, carriers in Taiwan should extend collaboration in exploring new business opportunities and expediting 5G use cases for the common interests of the whole telecom sector.