習近平領導型態之研究（2012-2023）

Abstract

習近平於2022年10月的中共二十大續任中共總書紀第三任期，為中共未來的領導人繼承體制埋下變數。自2012年上任之後，習近平並未如外界所預料會延續江澤民、胡錦濤的領導型態，以領導集體的方式實行民主集中制。在習近平接班之前，中共最高領導人胡錦濤領導權力薄弱，致使產生幹部們各行其事、拉幫結派、貪汙腐敗等弊病，習近平認為黨內腐化的程度足以危害共黨的生存。因此，他進行了一連串的改革，逐漸集大權於一身。 本研究以伯恩斯領導理論，闡述十八大、十九大、二十大習近平如何塑造團隊，分析習近平領導型態的變化。本研究發現，上任之初，習近平並未立即出手大肆改革，他必須妥協於派系平衡，以換取老幹部支持，得以藉大規模、持續久的反貪腐活動，清洗黨內各級幹部，打下周永康、郭伯雄等黨政軍大老虎。爾後透過自己擔任全面深化改革領導小組等新設小組的小組長，習近平掌握的資訊越多，收攏的權力也越多，他本人也從伯恩斯的交易型領導者蛻變為變革型領導者。隨著領導核心地位和黨的集中統一領導的確立，二十大以來中共形成「強書記、弱總理」的現象，習近平的領導型態也逐漸轉變為權力支配型的強人領導。 因習近平年值七旬，且權力高度集中，推測會有終身任期。本研究建議我國政府應整合產、官、學跨領域之資料，長期研究習近平領導決策思維與影響，供政府相關部門擬訂國家安全戰略與布局之參考。

Xi Jinping's appointment as General Secretary of the Communist Party of China (CPC, as known as Chinese Communist Party, CCP) for a third term at the 20th CCP National Congress in October 2022. It has cast a shadow of uncertainty over the future leadership succession system of the CCP. Since taking power in 2012, Xi Jinping has not, as expected, continued the leadership of Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao, and has not practiced democratic centralization of the Communist Party in a collective manner. Because of the weak leadership of Hu Jintao, the leaders of the CCP before Xi Jinping took over, which led to the emergence of cadres who acted in their own way, factions, corruption, and so on. Xi Jinping believed that the level of corruption within the party was sufficient to jeopardize the survival of the CCP. As a result, he carried out a series of reforms and gradually consolidated power in his hands. Using Burns' theory of leadership, this research explains how Xi Jinping shaped his team in the 18th, 19th and 20th Congresses, and analyses the changes in his leadership style. We found that at the beginning of his term of the top leader, Xi Jinping did not immediately embark on any major reforms. He had to compromise on the balance of factions in order to gain the support of the retired political elites and was able to clean up all levels of cadres in the party through a large-scale and long-lasting anti-corruption campaign that brought down the big tigers of the party, government, and military, such as Zhou Yongkang and Guo Bohsiung. Later, through his role as head of new groups such as the Leading Small Group for Comprehensive and Deepening Reform, the more information Xi got hold of, the more power he gained. and the more he transformed himself from a transactional leader to a transformational leader. With the establishment of the core leader and the centralized leadership of the party, the phenomenon of "strong secretary, weak premier" has been formed in the CCP since the 20th National Congress. The research found that the leadership style of Xi Jinping has gradually changed into a power-dominant strongman leadership. Since Xi Jinping is in his seventies and has tightened his grip on power, it is assumed that he will have a lifetime tenure. This research suggests that ROC government should integrate cross-disciplinary data from industry, government, and academia, and conduct long-term research on the decision-making thinking and influence of Xi Jinping's leadership, so as to serve as a reference for ROC government departments in formulating national security strategies.