請用此 Handle URI 來引用此文件:
http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/89715
標題: | 比較猴痘在 2022 年之前和 2022 年以後的潛伏期 Comparison of the incubation period of mpox before and as of 2022 |
作者: | 路易吉 Luis Jose Ponce |
指導教授: | 吳亞克 Andrey Akhmetzhanov |
關鍵字: | 猴痘,Mpox,貝葉斯統計學,潛伏期,隔離, monkeypox,mpox,Bayesian statistics,incubation period,quarantine,rash, |
出版年 : | 2023 |
學位: | 碩士 |
摘要: | 引言:Mpox(前稱為猴痘)是一種病毒性疾病,與天花屬於同一家族,其特徵為特殊的皮疹和發燒。Mpox的症狀從輕微到嚴重不等,可能持續數周,給患者帶來明顯的身體不適和情緒困擾。此外,由於需要專業護理和可能的併發症,Mpox對醫療系統造成相當的負擔。了解Mpox的傳播動力學和關鍵流行病學因素對於制定有效的控制措施,減輕該疾病對公共衛生的影響至關重要。本研究旨在評估2022年國際爆發前後Mpox病例的傳播動力學,重點是確定平均潛伏期。
方法:為達到研究目標,我們進行了對Mpox傳播事件的系統性回顧,提取了來自不同數據集的暴露和症狀發作日期。使用馬可夫鏈蒙特卡洛抽樣進行潛伏期分佈的估計。採用貝葉斯元分析方法比較並分析本研究和現有同行評審文獻中計算的潛伏期。 結果:該研究的發現顯示,合併平均潛伏期為7.80天,95%可信區間為6.98至8.61天。值得注意的是,在預2022年的水痘疫情和目前的全球疫情之間並未觀察到明顯的流行病學差異。分析還確定了所有後驗暴露至出疹期的95th、97.5th和99th百分位數分別為15.7、16.9和20.4天。 結論:根據研究結果,建議將隔離期限訂為21天。值得考慮的是,估計水痘暴露至出疹期間可能提供更多有價值的見解,因為與出疹不同,其他症狀可能不容易被辨認。該研究有助於了解水痘的傳播動態並為公共衛生措施提供有價值的資訊。 Introduction: Mpox (formerly monkeypox) is a viral disease that belongs to the same family as smallpox and is characterized by a distinctive rash and fever. The symptoms of mpox can range from mild to severe and can persist for several weeks, leading to significant physical discomfort and emotional distress for affected individuals. Additionally, mpox poses a considerable burden on healthcare systems due to the need for specialized care and potential complications. Understanding the transmission dynamics and key epidemiological factors of mpox is crucial for developing effective control measures and reducing the impact of this disease on public health. This study aimed to assess the transmission dynamics of mpox cases before and after the 2022 international outbreak, focusing on determining the average incubation period. Methods: To achieve the study objective, a systematic review of mpox transmission events was conducted, and exposure and symptom onset dates from different datasets were extracted. Estimations of incubation period distributions were performed using Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling. A Bayesian meta-analysis approach was employed to compare and analyze incubation periods calculated in this study and in pre-existing peer-reviewed literature. Results: The findings of the study revealed a pooled mean incubation period of 7.80 days, with a 95% credible interval ranging from 6.98 to 8.61 days. Notably, no distinguishable epidemiological differences were observed between pre-2022 mpox outbreaks and the current global outbreak. The analysis also identified the 95th, 97.5th, and 99th percentiles of all the posterior exposure-to-rash onset draws as 15.7, 16.9, and 20.4 days, respectively. Conclusions: Based on the study's results, a recommended quarantine period of 21 days is suggested. It is worth considering that estimating the period between mpox exposure and rash onset may provide more informative insights, as other symptoms may not be as easily identifiable as a rash. The study contributes to the understanding of mpox transmission dynamics and provides valuable information for public health measures. |
URI: | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/89715 |
DOI: | 10.6342/NTU202301209 |
全文授權: | 同意授權(全球公開) |
顯示於系所單位: | 全球衛生學位學程 |
文件中的檔案:
檔案 | 大小 | 格式 | |
---|---|---|---|
ntu-111-2.pdf | 1.65 MB | Adobe PDF | 檢視/開啟 |
系統中的文件,除了特別指名其著作權條款之外,均受到著作權保護,並且保留所有的權利。