氣候變遷下透過飲食暴露於黃麴毒素引起的風險和全球疾病負擔之評估

Abstract

面對氣候變遷影響日益加劇，本研究在預估氣溫升高攝氏2度的氣候變化情境下，評估因透過飲食尤其是玉米的攝食，而暴露於黃麴毒素（AFs）和AFB1導致健康風險以及全球疾病負擔的提升。本研究主要針對台灣、歐盟，以及17個資料充足、人口數以及B型肝炎感染率高的國家進行風險評估。研究結果揭示，在台灣和歐洲各年齡群體的AFs和AFB1暴露量大幅的增加，平均和95百分位暴露量皆增加超過350%。此外，計算出的癌症風險大多數超過了1 x 10-6，超過可接受風險，此數據顯然指出這些黴菌毒素的存在明顯增加了肝癌的風險與負擔。 本研究運用了一種包含溫度、水活性、CO2濃度等參數的預測模型，來預估未來氣候變化情境下的AFB1殘留狀況。其後，我們進行機率風險評估以估計每個國家的肝癌風險和疾病負擔。結果顯示，預估的未來黃麴毒素濃度將大幅的增長，從伊朗的6.82%提升至印尼的15.72%。本研究明確地顯示，在當前和預估的氣候情況下，每個被評估的國家的癌症風險都超過了1 x 10-6，並預期所有國家的癌症負擔將大幅增加。 這些發現強調了要保護食品安全，以防止氣候變遷的破壞性影響，需要進行集體的努力並採取主動的措施。這些措施包括發展能抵抗氣候變遷的農業規範、改進收穫後的處理和儲存技術，以及研究創新技術以檢測和管理食品污染物。也必須建立完善的食品安全和品質監管框架，並加強研究人員、政策制定者和產業利害關係人間的國際合作和知識分享。 本研究在氣候變化、食品安全和全球健康之間的交互作用的理解上作出了重要的貢獻，為對抗氣候變遷對我們食品系統的影響提供了關鍵的見解，確保了所有人能享有更健康、更安全的未來。

In the face of escalating climate change impacts, this study evaluates the intensifying risks and global disease burdens attributed to dietary exposure to aflatoxins (AFs) and AFB1, particularly through maize consumption, under an estimated +2°C climate change scenario. The study primarily targets Taiwan, the European Union, and the 17 most populous countries exhibiting a high prevalence of hepatitis B infection and sufficient data availability for risk assessment. The study’s results reveal an alarming escalation in AFs and AFB1 exposure levels across various age groups in Taiwan and Europe, with the mean and 95th percentile exposures increasing by over 350%. Furthermore, the majority of the calculated cancer risks exceed the universally accepted threshold of 10-6, signifying a substantial cancer risk associated with these mycotoxins. A predictive model, integrating parameters such as temperature, water activity, and CO2 concentration, was utilized to forecast future AFB1 residues under climate change conditions. A probabilistic assessment was subsequently implemented to estimate liver cancer risks and burdens in each country. The projected future aflatoxin levels demonstrated a substantial increase, ranging from a 6.82% in Iran to 15.72% in Indonesia. The study clearly reveals that every country assessed possesses a cancer risk greater than 10-6, both under current and estimated climate scenarios. Furthermore, there is an anticipated significant increase in cancer burdens across all countries. These findings underscore the urgent need for collaborative efforts and proactive measures to protect food safety from the damaging consequences of climate change. Such measures include the development of climate-resilient agricultural practices, enhancement of post-harvest handling and storage techniques, and the deployment of innovative technologies for food contaminant detection and management. Furthermore, the establishment of robust food safety and quality regulatory frameworks, and the intensification of international collaboration and knowledge sharing amongst researchers, policymakers, and industry stakeholders, are imperative. This research significantly enriches our comprehension of the interplay between climate change, food safety, and global health, offering crucial insights to counteract the effects of climate change on our food systems, thereby ensuring a healthier and safer future for all.