基於韌性特徵探討COVID-19疫情對桃園國際機場 入境航班之影響

Abstract

2020年新冠肺炎疫情 (COVID-19) 爆發，世界各國為減緩疫情傳播速度，陸續實施邊境管制、旅遊禁令及防疫相關措施，但此舉對於疫情前蓬勃發展的航空業無疑是一場災難。依據國際民用航空組織 (International Civil Aviation Organization, ICAO) 統計，2020年全球載客量較2019年減少約60%，眾多航線的航班因全球旅客量縮減而被迫取消或甚至停止營運，這導致航空公司無論在營運面或財務面均陷入困境，而桃園國際機場在疫情席捲下同樣無法倖免，2020年航班起降架次及載客人數分別較去年減少55%及85%，所受衝擊實屬巨大。

依據本研究觀察，來自不同航線入境桃園國際機場的客運及貨運航班在遭遇疫情時有其獨特的韌性表現，受影響的程度亦有所差異。因此，為系統化瞭解COVID-19對該機場入境航班的實際影響，本研究使用該機場的航班降落資料，從每條航線的航班變化趨勢中擷取4個與韌性相關的變數，並基於該等韌性特徵，運用K-means演算法將航線分群。此外，為進一步探討特定航線被分至同群的原因，本研究另蒐集機場設施、國際貿易及來臺旅客等因素作為變數資料，分別針對客運及貨運分群建立多項羅吉特模式，最後以2022年10月13日我國邊境解封後新開闢的義大利米蘭 (MXP) 及德國慕尼黑 (MUC) 2條新航線進行案例研究分析。

整體而言，貨運航線的韌性表現優於客運，並於2020年3月已恢復至疫情前的水準並有所成長，其中貨運部分又以區域航線的韌性優於長程航線，衰退速度最慢，恢復速度最快，平均衰退幅度約10%，而影響因素包含始發機場地理位置及所屬國與我國間貿易情形等；至於客運部分，疫情雖對來自樞紐機場的客運航線造成衝擊，但其韌性表現仍優於來自中國大陸、日本及韓國等非樞紐型機場的區域航線，而商務旅次愈多的客運航線，航班衰退幅度可能就愈大。此外，疫情期間民航主管機關開放的客機腹艙或客艙載貨政策有助於提升航線的韌性表現。

最後，本研究所提出的分群結果及羅吉特模式，有利於政府部門從韌性的角度，重新審視桃園國際機場與各航線經營業者於疫情期間受影響的情形，亦可提供航空公司未來在規劃新闢航線時，預測航線市場倘再次面臨類似COVID-19全球公衛危機時的表現，以作為航線籌辦及後續經營風險的評估參考。

The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 led to worldwide border controls, travel bans, and epidemic preventions to reduce the spread of the virus. These measures undoubtedly had a catastrophic impact on the thriving aviation industry. According to International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) statistics, global air passenger traffic decreased by approximately 60% in 2020 compared to 2019. Numerous flights were forced to be canceled or even suspended due to the reduction in passenger volume. This situation severely affected both the operational and financial aspects of airlines. Taoyuan International Airport was also one of the victims during the pandemic, with a 55% reduction in flight movements and a 85% decrease in air passenger traffic in 2020 compared to 2019.

This study observed that inbound passenger and cargo flights from different airports to Taoyuan International Airport exhibited unique resilience in the face of the pandemic, with varying degrees of impact. Therefore, to systematically understand the actual impact of COVID-19 on inbound flights at the airpoty, this study utilized flight landing data and extracted four resilience-related variables from the flight trends of each air route. Based on these resilience characteristics, this study employed the K-means algorithm to cluster the departure airports of inbound flights of Taoyuan International Airport. Additionally, to further investigate why specific routes were assigned to the same cluster, this study also established Multinomial logit (MNL) model for passenger and cargo clusters by airport facilities, international trade, and tourism data. Finally, a case study analysis was conducted on two newly opened routes, Milan (MXP) in Italy and Munich (MUC) in Germany, after the border control relaxation in Taiwan on October 13, 2022.

Overall, cargo routes demonstrated better resilience than passenger routes and had already recovered to pre-pandemic levels by March 2020 and even experienced growth later. Regional cargo routes exhibited greater resilience than long-haul cargo routes, with the slowest decline and fastest recovery speed, averaging a decline of approximately 10%. The influencing factors included the geographic location of the departure airport and the international trade situation. As for passenger routes, although the pandemic impacted passenger flights from hub airports, their resilience performance was still better than that of regional flights from China, Japan, and South Korea. Besides, passenger routes with a higher number of business travelers may experience greater decline in flight operations. Additionally, the policy of allowing cargo to be carried in the belly holds or cabins of passenger aircraft by the Civil Aeronautics Administration of the Ministry of Transportation and Communications in Taiwan has helped enhance the resilience performance of air routes.

Finally, the clustering results and MNL models proposed in this study provide government agencies with a perspective to reassess the impact of Taoyuan International Airport and airlines during the pandemic from a resilience standpoint. They can also serve as references for airlines when planning new routes, predicting the performance of route markets in the event of a similar global public health crisis like COVID-19, and evaluating route planning and subsequent operational risks.