探索人口流動對於中介新冠肺炎的民眾風險認知造成疫情動態影響的角色:考慮分布延遲的結構方程模式

Abstract

新冠疫情對全球人類健康、公共衛生、社會和經濟產生了深遠的影響。經歷 長期且持續進行的疫情，全球人類出現疫情疲勞的現象，遵守防疫公衛建議的意願 漸漸低落，例如不再對於人潮壅擠的場所感到害怕、對於疫情嚴重性逐漸麻木。此 時風險認知改變在塑造個人行為活動並影響疫情進程中的關鍵作用，了解民眾行為 活動作為風險認知及疫情發展的中介效果，成為至關重要的議題。本研究探討風險 認知、個人行為活動變化和疫情發展在不同疫情經歷的國家中的動態變化，及疫情 疲勞在兩國的情況如何影響疫情發展。本研究透過分佈時滯線性結構方程模型 (DLSEMs)，探索風險認知與疫情發展間的時間延遲效應及民眾行為活動的中介效果。 研究結果顯示風險認知對疫情的效果呈現 U 型非線性的模式，在 Omicron 變 異株時期，對於減緩疫情嚴重度的效果較晚發生。在台灣，三類活動在不同時期均 會成為中介效果。娛樂相關活動作為中介因子，可呈現出疫情疲勞的不同時期的影 響，而生活商店和藥局活動的影響在 Omicron 變異株的高傳染性下也不容忽視。另 外，經歷多次疫情波動的國家，其疫情疲勞的影響使疫情控制需花費更多的時間。 這些研究結果加深我們對疫情控制之機制過程的理解，強調了風險認知透過人類活 動影響疫情發展的重要性。在後疫情時代，應加強宣導、培養公共衛生防疫相關知 識，促進個人保護行為，使人們在自由、健康和經濟間取得平衡的新常態。

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a profound impact on global health, society, and the economy. The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the critical role of risk perception in shaping individuals' behaviors and influencing the course of the disease. Understanding and addressing risk perception are crucial for effective pandemic control and mitigation strategies. This study explores the dynamics of risk perception, human mobility changes, and pandemic fatigue in relation to the development of the pandemic in Taiwan and Japan. By utilizing distributed-lag linear structural equation models (DLSEMs), the research examines the temporal effects and interplay among these variables. The findings reveal a U-shaped non-linear pattern in the effect of risk perception on the pandemic, with a stronger impact on reducing the death rate. The lag period of the effect of risk perception on COVID-19 pandemic indicates the presence of pandemic fatigue. The mediating factors includes “Retail and recreation”, “Grocery store and pharmacy” and “Workplace” mobility in Taiwan pre-Omicron variants period, while in Omicron variant period, “Workplace” mobility does not a mediating factors. Countries experiencing multiple waves show higher pandemic fatigue. These findings contribute to our understanding of epidemic control mechanisms and emphasize the importance of risk perception and human mobility in shaping the pandemic's course. Effective management should prioritize public health education and communication, promoting individual protective behaviors while balancing freedom, health, and the economy.