股利與股票回購替代關係之時間序列變化

Abstract

本文宗旨在於探討股利與股票回購替代關係隨時間改變趨勢，並以檢視發放 股利與執行股票回購公司比例在 1991 至 2022 年之間變化作為佐證。本文實證研究發現 1991-2000 期間內股利與股票回購之間存在顯著替代效果，在 2001-2010 期 間兩者替代關係並不顯著，然而在 2011-2022 期間替代關係又重回顯著結果。而透過整體樣本公司成熟度與營運現金流在樣本期間的變化，可以發現結果與發放股利與執行股票回購公司比例隨時間改變趨勢一致。另外不同公司 特徵因子強弱也會影響股利與股票回購之間替代關係，市值較大與成熟型公司相較於市值較小與成長型公司而言，其替代效果明顯較為顯著。

The purpose of this article is to explore the changing trends in the substitute relationship between dividends and stock repurchases over time, and to examine the variation in the proportion of companies issuing dividends and executing stock repurchases between 1991 and 2022 as evidence. The empirical study in this article reveals that there is a significant substitution effect between dividends and stock repurchases during the period from 1991 to 2000. In the period from 2001 to 2010, the substitution relationship between the two is not significant. However, in the period from 2011 to 2022, the substitution relationship becomes significant again. By examining the changes in the overall sample companies' maturity and operating cash flows over time, consistent results can be observed with the changing trends in the proportion of companies issuing dividends and executing stock repurchases. Furthermore, the strength of different company characteristic factors also affects the substitute relationship between dividends and stock repurchases. Compared to smaller and growth-oriented companies, larger and mature companies exhibit a more significant substitution effect.