一帶一路對人民幣國際化的戰略意涵與影響

Abstract

戰爭正以新的面貌出現。近十年來，貿易戰、金融制裁等頻繁出現，疊加最近兩年俄羅斯和烏克蘭戰爭，雙方陣營祭出各式各樣的限制措施，在在顯示戰爭已跳脫傳統的兵戎相見，世人有必要以更宏觀的角度看待大國間的地緣政治手段。 有感於美元的普及提供美國不對稱的優勢，不僅可以以較低的成本籌資，更能發動金融制裁，使敵對國家無法取得美元，影響進出口貿易與外幣債務償付。中國本世紀以來一直進行人民幣國際化，但成效仍不慎理想。 然而，2013年中國大陸推出的野心勃勃的一帶一路計畫，理論上類似於承平時期的馬歇爾計畫–透過援助、貸款予較弱地區，鼓勵以該國貨幣購買相關商品與服務，並透過該貨幣進行計價與價值儲存。但透過本篇研究，讀者可以了解，以目前可取得的數據，一帶一路對於人民幣國際化的成效並不顯著。這當中除數據有限之外，一帶一路推行至今不超過十年，對於使用者黏性極強的貨幣使用行為來說，要有立竿見影的功效實屬不易。 即便如此，一帶一路計畫在貨幣推廣上仍給我們一個機會窺探中國政府的政策脈絡，且當中不乏具創意的做法值得借鏡。本研究透過文獻探討歸納出，以推廣人民幣作為交易媒介和計價標準來看，一帶一路可透過基礎建設投資、擴大銀行人民幣業務、推廣人民幣融資以及債券市場以及跨境支付系統等四大維度為人民幣的生態圈打下根基。一旦人民幣在支付和計價上廣泛使用，成員國央行提高人民幣在外匯存底中的比重指日可待。 此外，本研究亦針對中國大陸特有的技術和制度探討人民幣國際化後發先至的可能路徑。鑑於經濟和政治實力是支持國際貨幣的基石，本篇研究亦就威脅到中國國際政經地位的因素進行分析。 最後，本研究指出該研究實可作為研究大國競爭手段的一小部分，後續仍有包含技術封鎖、法律競爭等各項課題待後續研究發掘。另本研究針對如何拓人民幣使用的發現，與目前加密貨幣企業在思考如何增加貨幣使用場景與使用者黏性的脈絡不謀而合，可提供相關領域借鑑。

We live in a world in which wars can be conducted with a variety of means. Recently we have witnessed trade wars and sanctions in an unprecedented frequency, plus the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, it is needed to view geopolitics with a more comprehensive approach. The wide adoption of US dollar gives US an unparallel advantage over its competitors. It enables US to raise funding with lower costs and gives it the privilege to launch financial sanctions that cut off the US dollar channels of its competitors, squeezing their imports and undermining their ability to repay debts. Chinese authority understands this exorbitant privilege and is keen to internationalize RMB but so far, the progress has been ineffective. The ambitious Belt and Road Initiative may bolster progress in the long run. Theoretically, it resembles Marshall Plan that provides aids and loans to poor regions and encourages these regions to adopt USD for trades, invoice and value storage. However, according to this research, we have not seen a significant relationship between RMB usage and the Belt and Road Initiative. Despite the limited access to the data, the relatively short period since the inception of the Belt and Road Initiative provides little incentive to change user behavior, especially currency use is a field with high user stickiness. Be that as it may, the Belt and Road Initiative offers a few glimpses of Chinese government policy trajectory and some of which are creative. From a series of research papers, we reached a conclusion that theoretically, the Belt and Road Initiative can bolster RMB use in trade and invoice via infrastructure, banking business expansion, RMB financing and bond market creation as well as cross-border interbank payment system in member countries. Once the RMB use in trade and invoices has been improved, RMB’s weighting in foreign reserves of the members will be boosted. In addition, this paper points out potential approaches to catch up with USD in terms of usage based on China’s system and technological strength. As the ability to act as an international currency hinges on political power and economic strength, this paper also dig into the potential risk factors that may affect China’s risk profile. Finally, this research explores a subfield of a geopolitical statecraft. Other tactics such as legal warfare and technological blockade are worth a comprehensive study. Besides, the discoveries of broadening RMB usage coincide with the aim to enhance cryptocurrencies’ adoption in terms of expanding usage scenarios and improving customer stickiness.