巨獸之鬥 – 台灣電信服務產業生態系之分析

Abstract

2014年4G時代以降，台灣的電信業市場由中華電信、台灣大哥大、遠傳電信、台灣之星以及亞太電信等五家公司主導，儘管市場曾出現多家虛擬電信業者，但都未能獲得有效的市場份額。2018年的「電信499之亂」大幅拉低4G電信吃到飽資費價格，影響了整體產業的營收。 2019年各國陸續推出5G技術使通訊產業的環境面臨轉變，而台灣在2020年6月推出了5G服務後，2021年12月台灣大哥大即宣布合併台灣之星，遠傳電信亦於2022年2月宣布合併亞太電信；2023年1月NCC條件性通過了這兩個併購案，同時代表台灣電信產業進入了準三國時代，產生新的競爭局面。 本研究探討面向有二，其一為台灣電信產業的吸引力及獲利模式；另一方面則為探究2021-2023年的電信併購案發生的時空背景，以及其對於整體產業生態圈的影響。接下來將台灣的電信產業、三大電信公司與韓國的電信產業、SK Telecom對照分析，討論在產業環境改變、科技進步與AI與數位轉型的潮流下，電信服務業者和電信業生態圈內的互補如何因應變動而持續成長，進而形成聯盟與帶領產業發展。 台灣電信產業的潛在競爭者與替代品威脅低，而購買者和供應商具備中等的議價能力，但高入門門檻以致電信業的利潤率相較其他產業為高。由於數位匯流趨勢使產業界線模糊，過往電信業賴以維生的語音服務漸被取代，卻也因產品無明顯差異而形成激烈的業內競爭態勢。近年來台灣與韓國的電信業者都冀望透過內部有機成長與聯盟合作式成長的方式打造自己的平台生態系，進而產生差異化，提供更多服務而留住消費者，希冀維持其規模和創造差異化，並運用科技和數據創造更多價值，或通過併購來追求成長。電信服務平台故具有大者恆大的趨勢，無法達到規模的電信業者因而被收購，此點在台灣及韓國的電信產業都可得到驗證，然而政府監管阻止了完全壟斷局面發生，因此不見平台模式特性中的「贏者全拿」局面。

Taiwan's telecommunications market has been dominated by 5 MNO players since 2014. The telecom price war in 2018 reduced prices and impacted the industry revenue. The commercialization of 5G technology opened a new chapter of the industry globally, and Taiwan launched its 5G services in June 2020. After 1 year, Taiwan Mobile announced its merger with Taiwan Star in December 2021, and FarEasTone Telecom also announced its merger with Asia Pacific Telecom in February 2022. The governing authority, National Communications Commission (NCC), conditionally approved both merger cases in January 2023, marking the entry of a triopoly era and creating a new competitive landscape. This study primarily investigates two topics: (1) the attractiveness and profit models in Taiwan's telecommunications industry, and (2) the context of the 2021-2023 telecom mergers and their impact on the overall industry. A comparative analysis was conducted among Taiwan's telecommunications industry, the three major telecom companies, the telecommunications industry in South Korea, and a Korean telecom - SK Telecom. The research investigated the attractiveness and profit models of Taiwan's telecom industry, and the impact of the 2021-2023 telecom mergers. A comparative analysis was conducted among Taiwan's telecommunications industry, the three major telecom companies, the telecommunications industry in South Korea, and a Korean telecom - SK Telecom. The discussion revolved around how telecom operators and complementors within the ecosystem can adapt to changes in the industry environment. The telecom industry has enjoyed high margins due to the lack of substitutes and regulation. However, digital convergence blurred industry boundaries, and OTT services impacted voice call revenue. Intense competition led to price war, hurting the industry. In recent years, telecom companies have built telecom platforms to retain customers and maintain scale. Data from the telecom platforms is deemed as a future revenue driver. While both Taiwanese and Korean industries present the Matthew Effect, winner-take-all is not presented due to the regulations from the government.