COVID-19與農會信用部營運績效關聯性分析

Abstract

由於COVID-19在這幾年的快速傳播，對於經濟產生廣泛而深遠的影響。它導致全球的生產活動和供應鏈中斷，企業倒閉和失業率上升，並對全球貿易、旅遊和金融市場造成了嚴重衝擊。政府實施了各種經濟刺激措施和救濟計劃，以應對經濟的下行壓力。然而，經濟恢復和復甦仍然面臨著不確定性和挑戰，觀察國家經濟與景氣指數都曾一度下滑。相關文獻常對於經濟和金融機構受到的影響進行分析，也提及產業在疫情的處境，卻鮮少有針對農會信用部受疫情影響的研究，本研究希望選定計量模型並透過實證分析對相關問題進行探討。研究旨在以全臺灣地區的農會作為研究對象，探討農會信用部的業務範疇以及COVID-19疫情對農會信用部營運的影響。研究使用2018年至2022年的鄉鎮市區COVID-19確診率和農會信用部營運概況表資料進行驗證分析，搭配使用個體和時間的固定效果模型來探討COVID-19疫情與農會信用部營運之間的關聯性，參考指標則包含存放比率、逾放比率、備抵呆帳覆蓋率和資本適足率。研究結果顯示，COVID-19確診率對農會信用部的存放比率有負向影響，反映農會在疫情影響下放款需求減少，確診率對於逾放比率、備抵呆帳覆蓋率及資本適足率則呈現正面影響，反映出農會信用部在應對疫情衝擊加強風險管理措施，以確保資本充足、呆帳覆蓋率提高，並降低逾期放款風險。在將鄉鎮市區分群分析時，發現在都會核心地區的疫情對存放比率和資本適足率呈現正向影響，但對逾放比率和備抵呆帳覆蓋率則呈現顯著負向影響。然而，在工商市區和新興市鎮，疫情僅對逾放比率有顯著正影響，對其他指標無顯著影響。而對於傳統產業市鎮、低度發展鄉鎮、高齡化鄉鎮和偏遠鄉鎮，疫情對各指標的影響也各有不同。總體而言，COVID-19疫情對不同地區金融機構的營運產生不同程度的顯著影響。

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a widespread impact on the global economy, disrupting production, supply chains, and businesses while causing increased unemployment and affecting trade, travel, and financial markets. Governments implemented economic stimulus measures and relief programs to counter the economic downturn. However, economic recovery still faces uncertainties and challenges, leading to declines in economic and sentiment indices. While previous studies have analyzed the impact of the pandemic on financial institutions and industries, there is limited research on the effect on credit departments of farmers association. This study focuses on farmers associations in Taiwan to examine the business scope of their credit departments and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on their operations. The analysis considers the COVID-19 confirmation rate in rural-urban areas and the operating profile of credit departments from 2018 to 2022. Using two-way fixed effects model, the association between the pandemic and the operations of Farmers' Associations' credit departments is investigated, with indicators such as the loan-to-deposit ratio, non-performing loans ratio, coverage ratio, and capital adequacy ratio. The findings indicate that the COVID-19 confirmation rate negatively affected the loan-to-deposit ratio, indicating decreased demand for lending during the pandemic. However, it had a positive impact on the non-performing loans ratio, coverage ratio, and capital adequacy ratio, suggesting that credit departments implemented enhanced risk management measures in response to the pandemic. This included ensuring sufficient capital, expanding coverage of doubtful accounts, and reducing the risk of overdue lending. Analyzing rural-urban areas separately, the pandemic had a positive impact on the loan-to-deposit ratio and capital adequacy ratio in core metropolitan areas but negatively affected the non-performing loans ratio and coverage ratio. In industrial and commercial cities and emerging towns, it positively impacted the non-performing loans ratio but had no significant effect on other indicators. The impact on traditional industrial towns, low-development towns, aging towns, and remote towns varied across different indicators. Overall, the COVID-19 pandemic had a significant impact on the operations of credit departments of farmers association in various regions.