請用此 Handle URI 來引用此文件：
http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/88346完整後設資料紀錄
| DC 欄位 | 值 | 語言 |
|---|---|---|
| dc.contributor.advisor | 唐代彪 | zh_TW |
| dc.contributor.advisor | De-Piao Tang | en |
| dc.contributor.author | 馬融 | zh_TW |
| dc.contributor.author | Jung Ma | en |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2023-08-09T16:39:10Z | - |
| dc.date.available | 2023-11-09 | - |
| dc.date.copyright | 2023-08-09 | - |
| dc.date.issued | 2023 | - |
| dc.date.submitted | 2023-07-14 | - |
| dc.identifier.citation | 壹、 中文
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| dc.identifier.uri | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/88346 | - |
| dc.description.abstract | 本研究分別以臺灣上市上櫃24家全體觀光產業及7家具代表性的上市觀光產業為研究對象，探討觀光產業類股股價在政府防疫管制政策強度高低下的非線性關係。本研究採用Gonza′lez, Teräsvirta and van Dijk (2004, 2005) 所提出的縱橫平滑移轉迴歸模型(Panel Smooth Transition Regression Model, PSTR)，以政府防疫管制強度作為門檻變數，探討觀光產業類股股價是否呈現平滑移轉現象，並分析政府防疫管制強度、資產總額、現金流量比率、負債比率、每季營收、每股盈餘、每股淨值對類股股價的影響。
本研究實證結果顯示，政府防疫管制強度對觀光類股股價呈現正面影響，推測原因為政府管控疫情對投資人情緒的穩定作用及紓困振興方案的激勵效應；當以政府防疫管制強度做為門檻變數時，國內具代表性的觀光產業所受影響較顯著；而當介於防疫管制強度區間內，並以全體觀光產業為分析對象時，較多公司財務績效變數對股價有顯著影響，包含資產總額(負面影響)、負債比率(負面影響)、每季營收(正面影響)，門檻區間外則幾乎沒有變數對股價造成顯著影響。本研究結論說明，當疫情管制趨於過嚴或近乎沒有管制時，公司財務績效變數對股價影響幅度將趨於有限。 | zh_TW |
| dc.description.abstract | This study applies the non-linear methodology of smooth transition autoregressive model (STAR) elaborated by Granger and Teräsvirta (1993) and Teräsvirta (1994) and takes COVID-19 government’s stringency as the threshold variable to investigate the non-linear effect on Taiwan tourism firms’ stock price index. Seven factors including government’s stringency, firms’ asset, cash flow ratio, debt ratio, revenue, EPS, bank value, are chosen as independent variables to find out whether those factors have significant effect on tourism firms’ stock price. The sample comprises 24 listed tourism related companies and 7 leading listed tourism related companies in Taiwan Stock Exchange and Over-The-Counter Security Exchange from 2020 to 2022.
The result shows that when the targeted firms include 7 leading listed tourism related companies, COVID-19 government’s stringency has positive effects on those companies’ stock price. This study infers that the reasons may be government’s stringency can reduce investors’ panic feelings. Moreover, the government’s stimulus packages can enhance the investors’ confidence. When the targeted firms include all 24 listed tourism related companies, more companies’ indicators significantly affect their stock while government’s stringency is between the threshold value. Firms’ asset shows negative effect, debt ratio shows negative effect, while firms’ revenue shows positive effect on firms’ stock price. Furthermore, the empirical result shows no significant impact of firms’ financial performance indicators on Taiwan’s tourism firms’ stock price when government stringency is depart from the threshold value. The conclusion is that when the government’s stringency is over-strict or when there is nearly no stringency, the effect of firms’ financial performance on stock price index is not significant. | en |
| dc.description.provenance | Submitted by admin ntu (admin@lib.ntu.edu.tw) on 2023-08-09T16:39:10Z No. of bitstreams: 0 | en |
| dc.description.provenance | Made available in DSpace on 2023-08-09T16:39:10Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 | en |
| dc.description.tableofcontents | 謝辭 i
摘要 ii 英文摘要 iii 目錄 iv 表目錄 vi 圖目錄 vi 第一章 緒論 1 第一節 研究緣起與問題意識 1 壹、 研究緣起 1 貳、 問題意識 2 第二節 研究目的與主要研究問題 4 壹、 研究目的 4 貳、 主要研究問題 5 第二章 相關理論回顧與文獻探討 6 第一節 新冠肺炎疫情對金融的衝擊 6 第二節 新冠肺炎疫情對觀光市場的衝擊 8 第三節 重大事件對全球觀光與經濟發展的影響 9 第四節 公司財務變數與類股股價表現之關聯 11 第五節 政府防疫管制措施及量化方式 14 第三章 研究設計 17 第一節 研究方法 17 壹、 縱橫平滑移轉迴歸模型的起源與發展 17 貳、 縱橫平滑移轉迴歸模型設定步驟 21 第二節 研究架構 24 第三節 概念界定與操作性定義 25 壹、 門檻變數：政府防疫管制措施強度 26 貳、 解釋變數：如下說明 26 參、 被解釋變數：如下說明 27 第四節 研究對象與資料來源 28 壹、 研究對象 28 貳、 資料來源及資料期間 29 第五節 分析工具 29 第四章 實證結果與分析 30 第一節 資料樣本說明 30 第二節 變數敘述分析 30 第三節 防疫管制強度對觀光類股股價影響（對象：全體觀光產業） 32 第四節 防疫管制強度對觀光類股股價影響（對象：7家觀光產業） 44 第五章 結論 50 第一節 主要研究發現 50 第二節 後續研究建議 51 參考文獻 53 壹、 中文 53 貳、 英文 54 附 錄 61 表目錄 表3-3-1 本研究使用變數一覽表 27 表3-4-1 本研究產業分析對象一覽表 28 表4-2-1 各變數敘述統計量 30 表4-3-1政府防疫管制強度高低變化對觀光類股股價指數之同質性檢定 32 表4-3-2轉換函數模型選定 33 表4-3-3門檻區間數量估計 34 表4-3-4指數型平滑移轉迴歸(ESTR)函數模型參數估計 35 表4-3-5指數型平滑移轉迴歸（ESTR）函數模型參數影響估計 35 表4-3-6政府防疫管制強度及措施對應表 37 表4-4-1政府防疫管制強度高低變化對觀光類股股價指數之同質性檢定 45 表4-4-2轉換函數模型選定 45 表4-4-3門檻區間數量估計 46 表4-4-4 指數型平滑移轉迴歸（ESTR）函數模型參數估計 47 表4-4-5指數型平滑移轉迴歸（ESTR）函數模型參數影響估計 48 圖目錄 圖3-1-1 （m=1）邏輯型模型示意圖 20 圖3-1-2 （m=2）指數型模型示意圖 21 | - |
| dc.language.iso | zh_TW | - |
| dc.title | 以縱橫平滑移轉迴歸模型(PSTR模型)分析新冠肺炎疫情及政府因應疫情管制作為對臺灣觀光產業股市表現之影響 | zh_TW |
| dc.title | The Impact of Government Responses to COVID-19 in Taiwan on Tourism Companies' Stock Performance: PSTR model approach | en |
| dc.type | Thesis | - |
| dc.date.schoolyear | 111-2 | - |
| dc.description.degree | 碩士 | - |
| dc.contributor.oralexamcommittee | 聶建中;周治邦 | zh_TW |
| dc.contributor.oralexamcommittee | Chien-Chung Nieh;Jyh-Bang Jou | en |
| dc.subject.keyword | 縱橫平滑移轉迴歸模型,新冠肺炎疫情,政府防疫管制政策,觀光類股股價,公司財務變數, | zh_TW |
| dc.subject.keyword | Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) Model,COVID-19,Government’s Stringency,Tourism Firms’ Stock Price,Firms’ Financial Factors, | en |
| dc.relation.page | 62 | - |
| dc.identifier.doi | 10.6342/NTU202301386 | - |
| dc.rights.note | 未授權 | - |
| dc.date.accepted | 2023-07-17 | - |
| dc.contributor.author-college | 社會科學院 | - |
| dc.contributor.author-dept | 國家發展研究所 | - |
| 顯示於系所單位： | 國家發展研究所 | |
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