烏俄戰爭對臺灣飼料用玉米產銷之探討

Abstract

飼料用玉米在動物飼料配合上佔有相當高的比例，臺灣畜牧業的養殖過程中需要非常大量玉米做為飼料基礎。而臺灣糧食自給比率一直處於不到32%的低水位，當前民生用的食品等級黃豆、小麥及畜牧需求量最多的飼料玉米，一年進口量合計將近一千萬噸，可見我國對於進口的穀物雜糧依賴性非常高。然而這些穀物卻完全掌握在國外的生產者手上。全球主要穀物的產出及供應時，常受限於氣候、種植的面積、總產量，運費等等因素而造成價格的波動。

國內要有穩定的畜牧業發展，最重要的前提就是要有穩定的進口量及平穩的成本單價。而進口單價主要有三大主要的變動因素(一)期貨成本(二)海運費(三)美金匯率。而這幾年因遭受到史無前例COVID-19疫情(中文名稱為新冠肺炎)嚴重的影響，破壞全球的經濟供應產業鏈，疫情方興未艾，接連地緣政治的動盪，而發生在 2022 年2月底的烏俄戰爭，更是讓全球的糧食危機再度的浮上枱面，進一步影響到全球糧食交易受阻。這也導致國際市場短缺和價格飆升，讓全球的糧食危機雪上加霜。

本研究以臺灣需求量最大宗的商品飼料用玉米來做系統性探討，以烏俄戰爭發生前後的時間軸來分析飼料玉米的期貨成本、海運費、美金匯率等等變動因素，通過使用敍述統計及迴歸分析模型，考慮的因素除上述主要項目外，再加上國內進口量增減來分析烏俄戰爭所帶來的傷害是否有顯著的影響。發現這次烏俄戰爭所帶來的是瞬間短期的價格波動，但是造成國內的物價通膨問題變成長期影響。而進口成本增加的另一個層面，是因COVID-19疫情進入恢復期而造成經濟需求復甦，造成國際形勢詭譎多變，飼料用玉米做為臺灣最重要的進口穀物之一，安全庫存變得極其重要。對於國內本身倉儲設備及國際運輸的掌握能力必須再進一步的提昇，方可以確保臺灣的糧食安全。

Corn for animal feed accounts for a significant proportion in animal feed formulations in Taiwan's livestock industry. The country's self-sufficiency rate for food grains is below 32%, indicating a high dependence on imported grains, including soybeans, wheat, and corn. The annual import volume of these grains collectively amounts to nearly 10 million metric tons, highlighting Taiwan's significant reliance on imported grains. However, these grains are completely controlled by foreign producers. The global production and supply of major grains are often constrained by factors such as climate, cultivated land area, total output, transportation costs, and other factors, resulting in price fluctuations.

The most important prerequisite for the stable development of animal husbandry in China is to have a stable import volume and a stable cost unit price. The import unit price mainly has three main factors of change: (1) futures cost (2) sea freight (3) US dollar exchange rate. In the past few years, due to the severe impact of the unprecedented COVID-19 epidemic (Chinese name is New Coronary Pneumonia), it has destroyed the global economic supply chain. The war brought the global food crisis to the surface again, which further affected the global food trade. This has also led to shortages and price spikes in international markets, adding to the global food crisis.

This study will systematically discuss feed corn, which is the most demanded commodity in Taiwan, and use the timeline before and after the Ukrainian-Russian War to analyze the futures cost of feed corn, sea freight, and the US dollar exchange rate. By using descriptive statistics and multiple regression analysis models, in addition to the above-mentioned main items, the factors considered, plus the increase or decrease in import volume and the number of livestock raised, are used to analyze whether the damage caused by the Ukrainian-Russian War has a significant impact. It was found that the Ukrainian-Russian war brought about instantaneous short-term price fluctuations, but caused domestic price inflation problems to become long-term effects. In addition, Import costs has been shown to be due to the recovery of economic demand due to the recovery of the COVID-19 epidemic, resulting in a shortage of international transportation. The international situation in the future will be volatile. Feed corn is one of Taiwan's most important imported grains, and safety stocks have become extremely important. The ability to master domestic storage equipment and international transportation must be further improved in order to ensure Taiwan's food security.