糧食系統對氣候災害的脆弱性和抵禦能力：海地農民的應對和適應策略

Abstract

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The food system in Haiti faces challenges due to small-scale farming, inadequate infrastructure, and climate change impacts like droughts, floods, and hurricanes. These factors undeniably play a crucial role in the food system's inability to fulfill its primary objective of ensuring food security, particularly in rural regions where the majority of the population depends on agriculture for sustenance. Furthermore, these circumstances give rise to concerns regarding the ability of the food system to meet the projected high demand for food in the years 2030-2040 and 2050. Thus, this doctoral thesis focuses on the examination and analysis of the vulnerability and resilience of the food system, with a specific emphasis on food production, to climate-related disasters in Haiti. It also investigates not only the farmers' willingness to adapt to climate change but also their perceptions and the existing adaptive measures they have already implemented to mitigate the impacts of climate change. In order to fulfill this objective, a comprehensive analysis has been conducted on four specific food crops and cash crops that are predominantly consumed in Haiti. The research focuses on communities situated in the Artibonite region of Haiti and aims to achieve three main objectives. Firstly, we evaluate and analyze the projected food demand for the years 2030 – 2050, using two scenarios: Business as Usual and Stratified Society. The findings of both scenarios reveal that the selected crop yields will remain low and fail to meet the increasing local food demand. In this case, we assessed the willingness of 488 farmers to adopt crop rotations as an adaptive strategy to enhance yields. The findings reveal that less than half of the surveyed population is inclined to implement this adaptation measure on their plots to cope with climate change impacts. This suggests a potential challenge in achieving higher crop yields and meeting the growing food demand in the years 2030-2040 and 2050. Crop rotations are considered a beneficial agricultural practice as they can help improve soil fertility, control pests and diseases, and enhance overall crop productivity. It is crucial to address these challenges and promote sustainable agricultural practices to ensure an adequate food supply in the coming decades. As we have seen the selected crop yields are likely to remain low and climate change poses the greatest challenge to crop productivity, the second objective of this research is to evaluate the agricultural drought risk by incorporating all the relevant components of risk, namely vulnerability, hazard, exposure, and adaptive capacity, along with their respective influencing indicators. The assessment of drought risk is conducted in two stages, following the risk equation. Firstly, the risk equation is applied without considering the adaptive capacity, and secondly, the adaptive capacity is included as an additional component in the risk equation. The analysis of both approaches reveals that the first method yields a higher percentage (45.8%) of moderate to very-high drought risk compared to the second approach (30.7%). This indicates that approximately 30.7% of the land area exhibits a moderate to very high agricultural drought risk, posing a significant risk to both the existing food supply and the future productivity of the selected crops. This situation raises concerns regarding the ability to meet the escalating food demand in the coming years. Enhancing crop productivity and addressing the rising food demand in the future necessitates the implementation of climate change adaptation measures. However, it is imperative to recognize that achieving this goal is contingent upon the active participation and involvement of farmers. Hence, the third objective of this research is to investigate the variations in climate change perceptions among farmers based on their socioeconomic status and gender. Additionally, this section of the research seeks to explore the existing adaptation strategies that have been implemented to foster resilience in the face of climate change. Data for this investigation were collected through surveys administered to 670 farmers residing in two distinct regions of Haiti that are drought-prone areas. By utilizing structural modeling equations, the results indicate that farmers with lower incomes had a higher level of climate change perception compared to their higher-income counterparts. Additionally, female farmers demonstrated a greater level of climate change perception compared to male farmers. The analysis of adaptation strategies revealed that low-income farmers primarily relied on off-farm activities, such as securing off-farm employment, leasing lands, and household migration, as methods of coping with the impacts of climate change. Conversely, female farmers primarily focused on on-farm activities to adapt to climate change, including modifying the farming calendar, altering crop varieties, and adjusting the irrigation system. So, addressing the climate change perceptions and adaptation strategies of farmers, particularly those with lower incomes and female farmers, is crucial for improving crop productivity and meeting future food demand. By providing targeted support, promoting climate-resilient farming techniques, and adopting gender-specific approaches, agriculture can become more resilient and sustainable in a changing climate.