我國首次公民複決修憲案之研究

Abstract

本文研究2022年我國憲政歷史上首次公民複決修憲案，在眾多影響複決結果之因素中，本文以程序端及實體端兩大軸線切入研究，在程序端分析我國特殊的修憲複決門檻設計：「有效同意票過選舉人總額半數」，從路徑依循理論爬梳過去歷次修憲逐漸演變而產生此門檻之脈絡，並且回顧過去公民投票之經驗以及他國案例比較，分析在制度上如此高門檻之設計，以我國民眾參與投票的能量，幾乎難以達到修憲之可能。 在實體端的影響因素眾多，由於程序端的高門檻設計，使「十八歲公民權」議題本身，是否有足夠之誘因使政黨高度動員，號召選民出門投票，成為實體端重要的因素之一，故以此為研究軸心，輔以複決綁大選之政黨動員的相關因素，以及複決動態過程中產生的被選舉權年齡同步下修、是否產生世代對立導致複決未能通過等因素併同探討，使本文研究角度更多元。 本文以深度訪談搭配數據分析，發現此次複決修憲案未能通過之原因，在於我國修憲複決的超高門檻，加上兩大黨動員力道不足，即使以綁大選方式試圖提高投票率，仍無法產生具體效果。本文建議未來公民複決修憲，可採用包裹式提案以提高政黨動員誘因，其次落實公民審議機制以及不在籍投票的實施，增加民眾投票的參與意願，應有助於跨過如此之超高門檻。

This paper studies the first referendum on constitutional amendment in our country's constitutional history in 2022. Among the many factors that affect the outcome of the referendum, this paper cuts into the research from the two axes of the procedural side and substantive side, and analyzes Taiwan's special constitutional revision at the procedural side threshold design : "Half of the total number of electors with valid consent votes", from the path dependency theory, combing through the gradual evolution of past constitutional amendments to produce this threshold context, and reviewing the experience of referendum voting in the past and the comparison of cases in other countries, the analysis is so institutionally with the design of high threshold, it is almost impossible to achieve the possibility of constitutional amendment with the voting participation power of our people . There are many influencing factors on the substantive side. Due to the high threshold design of the procedural side , whether the issue of "18-year-old citizenship" itself has enough incentives for political parties to highly mobilize and call on voters to go out to vote has become one of the important factors on the substantive side. Therefore, Taking this as the research axis, it will be supplemented with relevant factors related to the mobilization of political parties tied to the general election, as well as factors such as the synchronous revision of the age of the candidates during the dynamic process of the referendum, whether there is generational rivalry that leads to the failure of the referendum, and so on, so that the research perspective of this paper is more diverse. Based on in-depth interviews and data analysis, this paper finds that the reason for the failure to pass the constitutional amendment is the extremely high threshold for constitutional amendments in Taiwan, coupled with the lack of mobilization of the two major parties, even if they try to increase the number of votes by tying the general election. rate, still unable to produce concrete results. This paper suggests that in the future, citizens can review and amend the constitution by adopting packaged proposals to increase incentives for political parties to mobilize. Secondly, implementing citizen deliberation mechanisms and absentee voting to increase people's willingness to participate in voting should help to pass such a high threshold.