經理人過度自信與現金持有—以臺灣上市櫃公司為例

Abstract

本研究旨於探究經理人過度自信對公司現金之影響，並以經理人持股變化衡量過度自信傾向，建構出臺灣經理人過度自信指標，針對臺灣上市櫃公司進行實證分析，樣本期間為2006年1月至2020年12月。

實證結果顯示於臺灣上市櫃公司中，經理人過度自信與現金持有為顯著正相關，過度自信公司傾向具有較高現金持有量；現金價值方面，過度自信與現金價值呈正相關，於經濟意義上現金對過度自信公司而言具重要性，價值追求之投資可用現金有利於公司價值，有助於緩解投資不足問題，促進經理人為更多創新投資以提升價值；透過渠道分析探討過度自信對現金影響來源，發現投資環境非臺灣過度自信對現金影響之關鍵因素，過度自信對現金持有和現金價值之影響皆不因其所屬產業特性而有所差異；最後，研究進一步發現過度自信對現金之影響均不隨交易、預防和代理動機而有所變化，證實經理人過度自信特質為臺灣公司現金政策之重要影響因素。

This study explores the impact of managerial overconfidence on corporate cash holdings by constructing a managerial overconfidence index based on changes in manager stock ownership. Empirical analysis is conducted on Taiwanese listed companies during the period from January 2006 to December 2020.

The empirical results show a significant positive correlation between managerial overconfidence and cash holdings in Taiwanese listed companies. Specifically, companies with overconfident managers exhibit a tendency towards higher cash holdings.

In terms of cash value, there is a positive correlation between managerial overconfidence and cash value in Taiwanese listed companies. Economically, cash is crucial for overconfident companies, as investments aimed at value creation can benefit from available cash, helping to alleviate the problem of insufficient investment and encouraging managers to make more innovative investments to enhance value.

Moreover, through channel analysis, this study investigates the sources of the impact of managerial overconfidence on cash and finds that the investment environment is not a key factor affecting the relationship between managerial overconfidence and cash. The effect of managerial overconfidence on cash holdings and cash value does not differ significantly across different industries.

Finally, the study further reveals that the impact of managerial overconfidence on cash does not vary with transactional motive, precautionary motive, or agency motive, confirming that the trait of managerial overconfidence is an important determinant of cash policies in Taiwanese listed companies.