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完整後設資料紀錄
DC 欄位 | 值 | 語言 |
---|---|---|
dc.contributor.advisor | 周雍強 | zh_TW |
dc.contributor.advisor | Yon-Chun Chou | en |
dc.contributor.author | 黃昱寧 | zh_TW |
dc.contributor.author | Yu-Ning Huang | en |
dc.date.accessioned | 2023-08-08T16:04:45Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2023-11-09 | - |
dc.date.copyright | 2023-08-08 | - |
dc.date.issued | 2023 | - |
dc.date.submitted | 2023-07-06 | - |
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[全台供應鏈調查–下]產業難題各異,又該如何因應需求預測人才缺口?(Feb 17, 2022)。檢自https://www.cw.com.tw/article/5120025 (May 22, 2023) 白銀價格走勢圖- 即時黃金 - BullionVault(June 29, 2023)。檢自https://zh-hant.bullionvault.com/silver-price-chart.do(June 29, 2023) 投資者的通膨預期:上行與下行風險 - CME Group (Oct. 26,2022)。檢自https://www.cmegroup.com/cn-t/insights/economic-research/2022/investor-expectations-for-inflation-upside-downside-risks.html (Dec. 20, 2023) Derivative definition衍生性金融商品 – IG。檢自 https://www.ig.com/cn/glossary-trading-terms/derivative-definition (Feb. 15, 2023) 電動車輛產業產業鏈簡介 - 產業價值鏈資訊平台。檢自https://ic.tpex.org.tw/introduce.php?ic=A300 (March 14, 2023) 碳酸鋰(99.5%Min中國)(LTCB995).HTML5圖_期貨 - 鉅亨(June 29, 2023)。檢自https://www.cnyes.com/futures/html5chart/LTCB995.html(June 29, 2023) 【圖解】高鎳三元電池是什麼?讓電動車成本大降,日韓也瘋狂研發(Feb. 2, 2023)。檢自https://www.bnext.com.tw/article/73884/battery-feb-23-mag (March 14, 2023) 俄烏戰爭成導火線!倫敦金屬交易所發生「妖鎳」事件(April 8, 2022)。檢自https://gvlf.gvm.com.tw/article/88682 (March 15, 2023) 【2023年有色金屬市場前瞻】電解鈷:累庫趨勢延續 價格仍傾向於下行(Feb. 20, 2023)。檢自https://www.cnfin.com/yw-lb/detail/20230220/3808617_1.html(March 14, 2023) 鈷-現貨(LME Cobalt Cash)(LCOCS).HTML5圖_期貨_金融中心(June 29, 2023)。檢自https://www.cnyes.com/futures/html5chart/LCOCS.html(June 29, 2023) 銅與鎳2023趨勢展望 - 統一期貨 (Dec. 2023)。檢自https://www.pfcf.com.tw/photo/article/3571/file13024.pdf (March 10, 2023) 鎳-現貨(LME Nickel Spot)(NDCS).HTML5圖_期貨 - 鉅亨(June 29, 2023) 。檢自 https://www.cnyes.com/futures/html5chart/NDCS.html(June 29, 2023) 【產業概觀】電動車電池夯什麼?電池材料佔6成製造成本,上中下游供應鏈大拆解,概念股一次看(March 10, 2023)。檢自https://news.cnyes.com/news/id/5111569 (March 14, 2023) 99%MIN鋰現貨互動圖表- INVESTING.COM (July 3, 2023)。檢自https://hk.investing.com/commodities/99-min-china-lithium-metal-futures (July 3, 2023) 鎳期貨歷史價格 - Investing.com 香港(July 3, 2023)。檢自https://hk.investing.com/commodities/nickel-historical-data (July 3, 2023) Agrawal, V., & Seshadri, S. 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Risk management in global sourcing: Comparing the business world and the academic world. Transportation Journal, 52(1), 80-107. Monczka, R. M., Handfield, R. B., Giunipero, L. C., & Patterson, J. L. (2009). Purchasing and supply chain management. South-Western. Parniangtong, S. (2016). Supply Management. Springer. Pellegrino, R., Costantino, N., & Tauro, D. (2019). Supply Chain Finance: A supply chain-oriented perspective to mitigate commodity risk and pricing volatility. Journal of Purchasing and Supply Management, 25(2), 118-133. Pellegrino, R., Costantino, N., & Tauro, D. (2021). The value of flexibility in mitigating supply chain transportation risks. International Journal of Production Research, 59(20), 6252-6269. Perloff, J. M. (2009). Microeconomics. Pearson Education. Rao, S., & Goldsby, T. J. (2009). Supply chain risks: a review and typology. The International Journal of Logistics Management. Simchi-Levi, D., Kaminsky, P., Simchi-Levi, E., & Ji, J. (2000). Designing and managing the supply chain. Von Neumann, J., & Morgenstern, O. (1944). Theory of games and economic behavior. Princeton University Press. Wang, Q., & Tsao, D. B. (2006). Supply contract with bidirectional options: The buyer's perspective. International Journal of Production Economics, 101(1), 30-52. | - |
dc.identifier.uri | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/88053 | - |
dc.description.abstract | 隨著現今科技的快速日新月異、全球化時代的蓬勃發展,以及世界局勢的轉變,使得市場需求變數相較以往提高許多。來自市場的需求將影響市場價格,更攸關著企業的營收多寡。各企業為了因應如此劇烈變化的市場環境,良好的供應鏈管理是企業應極其重視的一環。
此研究將重點放在「需求」的高度不確定性,針對供應鏈中「採購」這項職能,探討不同內部與外部環境變數的影響,並且考慮企業的風險偏好程度,把風險量化且納入採購考量中,發展出面對需求與價格波動時,基於選擇權的採購策略。 本論文中,首先對於策略採購、選擇權以及風險評估做介紹與應用,並說明本研究所採用的數量折扣與風險效用函數模型。接著以電動車原材料的價格波動為例,引述出環境外部因素如何影響著需求,需求影響價格,以及價格的各種波動行為。對於需求與價格高度波動的風險,企業為求永續發展應把此風險納入決策以保障其獲利程度,發展積極的採購策略。研究結果顯示當需求變異低時,彰顯不出選擇權採購策略的價值;需求變異較高時,在某個變異範圍中選擇權採購策略的期望效用是最好的;當需求變異太高,到了極端值範圍時,選擇權所提供的「等待的價值」會因為變異高選擇權價格也高,而抵銷掉選擇權的價值。另外,需求成長率也是影響選擇權價值的一大因素,當成長率相對高時,資產上漲的機率較高導致企業不需要透過購買選擇權保有資產價值。最後對於選擇權採購策略的數值結果,提出對於不同採購方式的分析與建議。 過去把風險量化且納入採購決策的文獻並不多,風險效用函數的制定也只有把利潤為正的情況納入考量,本研究的貢獻即是改善了上述兩點,能有效地讓企業在做採購決策時把風險適當地納入評估。 | zh_TW |
dc.description.abstract | Along with the advances of modern rapid technology, the booming era of globalization, and the complexity of worldwide situation, market demand has become much more unpredictable. Market demand affects the market price, and the market price affects a firm’s profit, which values the most for a firm. Supply chain management is an important competency for companies so as to cope with such drastic changes.
This study focuses on the high volatility of demand, which ultimately affects price, and examines the impact of internal and external environmental variables on the function of "sourcing" in supply chain, whilst taking the risk attitude of a company into consideration to quantify and incorporate risk into sourcing decisions. We then develop an option-based sourcing strategy to deal with the risk of demand and price volatility. In order to remain profit-sustainable, companies should aggressively develop sourcing strategies to deal with the high volatility of demand/price. Numerical results have shown that the value of option is not significant when demand variability is low; when demand variability is high, the expected utility of option-based sourcing strategy is the best within a range of variability; when demand variability is high enough to some degree, the "value of waiting" provided by option will be offset by the high option price due to high variability. In addition, the demand growth rate is a major factor affecting the value of option as well. When growth rate is relatively high, there’s a higher chance that the asset value will rise, resulting in firms not needing to retain asset value by purchasing options. The numerical results of the option-based sourcing strategy are presented to provide further analysis and suggestion for different sourcing methods. | en |
dc.description.provenance | Submitted by admin ntu (admin@lib.ntu.edu.tw) on 2023-08-08T16:04:45Z No. of bitstreams: 0 | en |
dc.description.provenance | Made available in DSpace on 2023-08-08T16:04:45Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 | en |
dc.description.tableofcontents | 中文摘要 i
ABSTRACT ii 目錄 iii 圖目錄 vi 表目錄 vii 第一章 研究背景與動機 1 1.1 研究背景 1 1.2 研究動機 5 1.3 研究目的與方法 6 1.4 研究架構 7 第二章 文獻回顧 8 2.1 採購功能之發展 8 2.2 策略採購 8 2.2.1 策略採購概述 8 2.2.2 策略採購之架構 9 2.2.3 策略採購之決策 13 2.3 風險 13 2.3.1 下行風險 13 2.3.2 風險評估與其重要性 15 2.3.3 處理風險的採購策略 16 2.3.4 風險偏好與效用函數 17 2.4 實質選擇權在供應鏈的發展與應用 19 2.4.1 選擇權的由來 19 2.4.2 選擇權在供應鏈之發展演變 20 2.4.3 選擇權於各領域之應用 21 2.5 實質選擇權之評價方式 Real Option Valuation 22 第三章 問題描述與研究方法 27 3.1 電動車發展歷程 27 3.2 電動車電池原物料價格分析 27 3.2.1 鋰 28 3.2.2 鈷 29 3.2.3 鎳 30 3.3 原物料採購之價格風險 31 3.4 策略採購中價格下行風險之避險行為 34 3.5 問題描述與方法 34 3.5.1 三種採購方案 35 3.6 評估方式 37 第四章 數值分析與討論 40 4.1 內部變數分析 40 4.1.1 供應商變數 40 4.1.2 買家變數 42 4.2 外部變數分析 44 4.2.1 v,σ 分析 44 4.2.2 變異係數分析 44 4.3 原物料採購方式分析 47 第五章 結論與未來研究建議 48 參考文獻 50 圖目錄 圖 一、疫情後製造業面臨的挑戰 2 圖 二、疫情後零售與電子商務業面臨的挑戰 3 圖 三、疫情後服務業面臨的挑戰 3 圖 四、企業在疫情後認為具有正面影響力的投資方向 4 圖 五、白銀價格趨走勢圖 6 圖 六、Kraljic 架構圖 11 圖 七、Fisher 架構圖 12 圖 八、只考慮profit為正的效用函數 (Utility Function) 18 圖 九、考慮profit為負的效用函數 (Utility Function) 19 圖 十、標的資產價值變化 23 圖 十一、選擇權的價值變化 24 圖 十二、標的資產價值binomial lattice 25 圖 十三、標的資產選擇權價值 25 圖 十四、近五年鋰價格走勢圖(人民幣/噸) 28 圖 十五、近五年鈷價格走勢圖(美元/噸) 30 圖 十六、近五年鎳價格走勢圖(美金/噸) 31 圖 十七、Kraljic 架構圖 33 圖 十八、all unit discount price價格圖 36 圖 十九、風險趨避者(risk averse) 的效用函數(utility function) 38 圖 二十、ro=0.1, ru=0.6應採取行動之變異門檻 41 圖 二十一、ro=0.1, ru=0.3應採取行動之變異門檻 42 圖 二十二、不同風險程度下各採購方案表現優劣 43 表目錄 表 一、全球近三年鎳供需平衡表 31 表 二、不同供應商懲罰係數r下,買家應採取行動之變異門檻 σ 41 表 三、選擇權為最佳效用的C.V.範圍 45 | - |
dc.language.iso | zh_TW | - |
dc.title | 面對材料價格波動風險以選擇權為基礎的採購策略 | zh_TW |
dc.title | An Option-based Sourcing Strategy under Price Volatility Risk | en |
dc.type | Thesis | - |
dc.date.schoolyear | 111-2 | - |
dc.description.degree | 碩士 | - |
dc.contributor.coadvisor | 洪一薰 | zh_TW |
dc.contributor.coadvisor | I-Hsuan Hong | en |
dc.contributor.oralexamcommittee | 黃奎隆;紀佳芬;歐陽超 | zh_TW |
dc.contributor.oralexamcommittee | Kwei-Long Huang;Chia-Fen Chi;Ou-Yang Chao | en |
dc.subject.keyword | 選擇權,策略採購,價格風險,風險評估,風險效用函數,風險趨避, | zh_TW |
dc.subject.keyword | option,strategic sourcing,price risk,risk evaluation,utility function,risk averse, | en |
dc.relation.page | 54 | - |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.6342/NTU202301333 | - |
dc.rights.note | 未授權 | - |
dc.date.accepted | 2023-07-10 | - |
dc.contributor.author-college | 工學院 | - |
dc.contributor.author-dept | 工業工程學研究所 | - |
顯示於系所單位: | 工業工程學研究所 |
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