氣候變異與極端氣候對農家福利的相關性: 以菲律賓為例

Abstract

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ABSTRACT This paper examines the impact of climate variability and extreme weather on total expenditure, food expenditure, non-food expenditure and total income of agricultural households in the Philippines. Using data from the Family Income and Expenditure Survey (FIES) and Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), the results show that rainfall variability and temperature variability adversely impact all welfare measures. Also, households who have experienced drought in the past 12 months have significantly lower total expenditure, food expenditure, non-food expenditure, and total income. Subgroup analysis shows that women and older household heads are more vulnerable to rainfall variability and drought. Meanwhile, the heterogeneity due to educational attainment is not consistent. The subgroup analysis of sub-sectors shows that both the crops sub-sector and the livestock and poultry sub-sectors are adversely affected by rainfall variability and drought. However, the sub-sector that is more impacted by rainfall variability and drought varies depending on the outcome variable. The findings of the study provide evidence that programs targeted at the household level, especially to women and older people, are necessary to adapt to climate change. Furthermore, efforts should be focused on rainfed agriculture and water management.