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標題: | 從金融面、政策面分析人民幣國際化 From the Aspect of Finance and Policy to Analyze Internationalization of the Renminbi |
作者: | 江庭輔 TIN-FU JIANG |
指導教授: | 唐代彪 De-Piao Tang |
關鍵字: | 人民幣國際化,強弱危機分析,數位人民幣,人民幣跨境支付系統,人民幣計價,俄烏戰爭,香港, The Internationalization of Renminbi,SWOT Analysis,Digital RMB,CIPS,Denominated in RMB,Russia-Uzbekistan war,Hong Kong, |
出版年 : | 2023 |
學位: | 碩士 |
摘要: | 人民幣國際化從西元2009年左右開始,而在全球支付方面於西元2022年9月排名第五名,全球外匯儲備幣種構成方面則於西元2022年第二季排名第五名,離成功仍舊有一段距離,然而中國的決心卻使人畏懼。本篇論文從各個因素去分析,第一:金融因素方面,中國主要透過其貿易以及國內生產總值增加人民幣之使用,且當愈來愈多人使用人民幣就會產生金融外部性;第二:政策因素方面,中國開拓了許多投資管道,例如跨境理財通、債券通、深港通、滬港通、人民幣合格境外投資機構等,並且中國於西元2015年建立了人民幣跨境支付系統增加人民幣清算之效率。除此之外,中國政府也與其他國家或地區簽訂雙邊貨幣互換,增加金經濟之穩定並且降低對於外匯之依賴,更有助於人民幣之使用;第三,俄烏戰爭發生,俄國被西方國家經濟制裁,然而俄國的SPFS可接入CIPS,這將有可能降低經濟制裁之威力並且增加人民幣國際化之腳步;第四:中國目前與阿拉伯洽談石油以人民幣計價,雖然中國目前在人民幣計價方面十分不足,然而中國鞍鋼集團與澳洲力拓集團交易鐵礦時以人民幣計結即有示範的作用;第五:數位人民幣雖然目前仍舊主要著眼於國內使用,但是西元2022年10月26日,香港金融管理局、中國人民銀行數位貨幣機構、泰國中央銀行和阿拉伯聯合大公國中央銀行,聯合發布「Project mBridge Connecting economics through CBDC」已經嘗試跨境之批發行支付以及國際貿易清算,除了有助於金融普惠性,若是成功擴張於跨境支付,將有助於支付之效率以及促進人民幣國際化;第六:中國的國債被富時羅素公司納入世界國債指數,中國的A股被摩根士丹利資本國際公司納入MSCI新興市場指數,且人民幣於西元2015年11月30日被國際貨幣基金組織納入一籃子的貨幣,更於西元2022年8月提高其在一籃子中的權重至12.28%。本篇文章以SWOT分析人民幣國際化之優劣與機會、威脅。人民幣國際化之優勢來自於中國政府積極鼓勵人民幣之使用以及其經濟體,劣勢來自於中國政府對於資本之控制,且在金融市場之基礎建設與高科技人才方面之不足。就機會而言,中國有香港作為人民幣國際化之發展基地,且與中國周邊國家保持良好的關係,有助於人民幣使用之拓展,就威脅而言,西方國家或日本是否能接受人民作為國際化之貨幣有待商榷。最後,面臨人民幣國際化所致人民幣升值,中國政府是否會介入外匯市場或資本市場,甚或放任市場或增加彈性,則有待時間的驗證。 The internationalization of the RMB started around 2009, and ranked fifth in September 2022 in terms of global payments, and ranked fifth in the COFER in the second quarter of 2022. There is still a long way to go before success, however, China's determination is stunning. This paper analyzes various factors. First: In terms of financial factors, China mainly increases the use of RMB through its trade and GDP. And when more and more people use RMB, financial externalities will occur; second: In terms of policy factors, China has developed many investment channels, such as Bond Connect, Current Scheme, RQFII, etc. China also established the CIPS in 2015 to increase the efficiency of RMB settlement. In addition, the Chinese government has also signed bilateral currency swaps with other countries or regions, which increases the stability of the economy and reduces dependence on foreign exchange; third: Economic sanctions. In 2002 , Russia’s SPFS was connected to CIPS, which may reduce the power of economic sanctions and increase the pace of RMB internationalization; Fourth: China is currently negotiating with Arab on the issue of oil prices denominated RMB.Although merchandises denominated in RMB are still not many, trading iron ore with Rio Tinto Group shows a demonstrative role in RMB denomination ; Fifth, the Monetary Authority, the Digital Currency Institution of the People's Bank of China, the Central Bank of Thailand and the Central Bank of the United Arab Emirates jointly released "Project mBridge Connecting economics through CBDC", which has attempted to develop the pilot on cross-border wholesale payment and international trade settlement. If DC/EP is successfully expanded to cross-border payment, it will help the efficiency of payment and promote the internationalization of RMB; Sixth: China's national debt is included in WGBI, and China's A-shares are included in the MSCI EM Markets Index. Also, RMB was included in SDR by IMF in 2015, and its weight in the basket was increased to 12.28% in August 2022. This article uses SWOT to analyze advantages, disadvantage, opportunity and threat of RMB internationalization. The advantages of RMB internationalization come from the Chinese government’s lasting encouragement of the use of RMB and its size of the economy. The disadvantages come from Chinese government’s tight control over capital, insufficiently financial infrastructure and lack of high-tech talents.In terms of opportunities, China has Hong Kong as the development base for RMB internationalization, and China also maintains good relations with China’s neighboring countries, which will help expand the use of RMB. In terms of threats, whether Western countries or Japan can accept RMB as an international currency is debatable. Finally, how Chinese government will react in the face of the appreciation of Renminbi due to the internationalization of the renminbi including intervening in the foreign exchange market or the capital market, or even letting the market go or increasing the flexibility in the market, remains to be tested by time. |
URI: | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/87213 |
DOI: | 10.6342/NTU202300486 |
全文授權: | 同意授權(全球公開) |
顯示於系所單位: | 國家發展研究所 |
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