影響加拿大鋰業投資的風險因素

Abstract

鋰是參與全球能源轉型的最重要的商品之一。它在鋰離子充電電池功能中的關鍵作用使這種礦物的供應鏈與電動汽車電池市場保持一致。到 2040 年，年預計電動汽車銷量將達到 7000 萬輛。確保穩定的電池供應鍊是電動汽車製造的關鍵，而構建鋰等電池礦物的全球供應是這一問題的核心。加拿大估計佔全球已查明鋰供應的 3.26%，因此團結起來滿足對這種資源不斷增長的需求。作為鋰生產的新興市場，加拿大為投資者提供了機會，但也帶來了顯著的風險。這種格局在很大程度上取決於加拿大在全球鋰市場上的競爭優勢，在政治經濟上，該國與西方利益保持一致。加拿大的環境和社會背景也影響著鋰項目，而技術創新繼續擾亂該行業。在對影響加拿大鋰投資的外部景觀因素進行調查後，進行了部分風險分析，總結為供投資者使用的風險圖表，確定了四大領域：經濟、穩定、可持續性和技術。穩定性和可持續性風險因素總體上表現出較低的風險水平，而經濟和技術揭示了未來幾十年最重要的波動來源。加拿大鋰生產。

Lithium is one of the most important commodities involved in the global energy transition. Its critical role in the functionality of lithium-ion rechargeable batteries aligns this mineral’s supply chain with the market for electric vehicle batteries. By 2040, annual EV sales are expected to exceed 70 million units. Ensuring stable supply chains for batteries is key to EV manufacturing, and building the global supply of battery minerals such as lithium is at the core of this issue. With an estimated 3.26% of global identified lithium supplies, Canada is uniquely positioned to meet the growing demand for this resource. As an emerging market for lithium production, Canada presents opportunities to investors, but also carries notable risks. This landscape is largely shaped by the competitive advantages that Canada holds on the global lithium market, where politically and economically, the nation is aligned with Western interests. Canada’s environmental and social contexts also affect lithium projects, whereas technological innovation continues to disrupt this sector. Following a survey of the external landscape factors affecting lithium investments in Canada, a partial risk analysis, summarized into a risk chart to be used by investors, identifies four broad risk areas affecting Canadian lithium: economy, stability, sustainability and technology. Stability and sustainability risk factors exhibit lower risk levels overall, whereas economics and technology reveal the most significant sources of volatility over the course of the coming decades. The results of this research can help inform potential investors in Canadian lithium production.