中國對臺禁運鳳梨措施對臺灣鳳梨價格影響之研究

Abstract

臺灣鳳梨平均年產量約 43 萬公噸，其中約 10% 外銷至國外，於2015 年至 2020 年臺灣鳳梨外銷至中國佔總外銷量90%以上，為主要出口國家。而農業為易受氣候環境干擾之產業，若再加上無預警之禁運政策，將對臺灣農業產生負面影響。本研究主要探討發生於2021中國禁運臺灣鳳梨事件，將如何影響我國鳳梨批發市場價格，並檢視政府對此次禁運事件所做因應措施之成效。

本研究之研究資料為臺北第二果菜批發市場2020 年 1 月 1 日至 2020 年 12 月 31 日以及 2021 年 1 月 1 日至 2021年 12 月 31 日兩年度之鳳梨平均價格（元/公斤），研究方法包括中斷時間序列（ITSA）以及線性迴歸模型。實證結果顯示，當發生中國禁銷臺灣鳳梨事件時，臺灣鳳梨批發市場價格可能與禁運事件之發生有所關聯，而導致禁運事件發生期間鳳梨價格之趨勢相較於禁運事件發生前之趨勢略為平緩，惟 2020 年鳳梨價格趨勢呈現緩慢地下降，與 2021 年之趨勢在禁運事件發生前與禁運事件發生期間皆呈現上升趨勢不同。因此由實證分析可得關聯性之推論，即在我國鳳梨運銷至中國受阻期間（外銷占 10%且中國占外銷量之 9 成），其外銷因無法輸出導致2021年國內市場鳳梨批發價格為平緩上升之趨勢。

Taiwan's average annual output of pineapples is about 430,000 metric tons, of which about 10% will be exported abroad. From 2015 to 2020, China is Taiwan’s major export country of pineapples, accounting for more than 90% of the total foreign sales. Agriculture is an industry susceptible to climate and environmental disturbances, and if coupled with the embargo policy without warning, it will have a negative impact on Taiwan's agriculture. This study examines how the 2021 China's embargo policy on pineapples in Taiwan will affect the pineapple wholesale price in Taiwan, and examines the effectiveness of the government's response to the embargo. The sample of the study comes from the average price of pineapples (NTD/kg) in Taipei Second Fruits & Vegetables Wholesale Market during January 1, 2020 to December 31, 2020 and January 1, 2021 to December 31, 2021. The methodology includes interrupted time series analysis (ITSA) and linear regression models. The results reveal that after China's embargo policy on pineapples in Taiwan, the pineapple wholesale price in Taiwan was indeed affected by the policy, resulting in the trend of pineapple prices after the embargo policy being slightly slower than the trend before the embargo policy. However, the trend of pineapple prices in 2020 showed a slow decline, unlike the trend in 2021, which showed an upward trend before and after the embargo policy. Therefore, the causal inference can be obtained from empirical analysis, that is, after the shipment of pineapples from Taiwan to China is blocked, the pineapple wholesale price in 2021 is a flat upward trend due to the inability to export.