新冠肺炎疫情對農家經濟福利之影響─以臺灣為例

Abstract

新冠肺炎疫情自2019年爆發後持續存在，對現今社會及各大產業影響甚鉅，其中，對農、林、漁、牧各相關產業皆造成偌大衝擊，更有許多地區引發糧食安全問題，為此世界各國積極採取行動以應對農業市場遭受的損失，在面臨疫情重創的對象中，農家為相對較弱勢的群體，若其遭遇重大虧損，則可能嚴重導致生計及基本需求困難，因此，本研究欲探討農家經濟福利受新冠肺炎疫情影響的程度為何，以及相關福利政策能否給予支持。 本研究使用2018年至2020年之家庭收支調查報告，篩選資料中為農牧戶的家庭，並將有從事耕作的農家作為實驗組，而全年休（廢）耕之農家作為控制組，以差異中之差異法（Difference-in-Differences）分析新冠肺炎疫情對農家經濟福利之影響。實證結果顯示，若以農家總樣本進行分析，可發現除了儲蓄外，所得及支出在新冠肺炎疫情發生後皆無顯著改變，然而，若考慮樣本是否接受老農年金政策，在經營型態為其他農作下，則可發現無領取老農年金之農家的農業所得顯著下降，而有領取之農家則否，證實老農年金可有效減緩新冠肺炎疫情對農業所得帶來的衝擊，進而保障戶內老年人口比例較高的農戶。 本研究使用年資料僅能瞭解整年的總體影響，若能以季或月為單位進行分析，或增加疫情發生後之觀察年，則可更清楚觀察疫情帶來的效果，此外，若能取得各項紓困、振興政策施行結果的資料，如農遊券的使用情形、農家是否申辦紓困貸款等資料，則能有一個更完整的分析。

COVID-19 has had severe impacts on the society and industries since the outbreak in 2019. Serious impacts of COVID-19 have been found on agriculture, forestry, fishery, and animal husbandry related industries as well. Many countries have taken active actions to mitigate the losses in agricultural markets. Compared to nonfarm populations, farmers are relatively vulnerable. If farmers suffer significant losses, it may seriously lead to difficulty in livelihoods and basic needs. Therefore, this research aims to explore the extent to which the economic welfare of the farm household is affected by COVID-19 epidemic, and whether relevant welfare policies can mitigate the impacts. In this study, the survey of Family Income and Expenditure in Taiwan from 2018 to 2020 was used. I also apply the Difference-in-Differences method to analyze the impact of COVID-19 epidemic on the economic welfare of the farm household. Farmers who practiced farming were used as the treatment group, and farmers who took off (abandoned) farming throughout the year were used as the control group. Our results show that, except for savings, there is no significant impact on income and expenditure after the outbreak of COVID-19. However, if we consider the status of the farm households to receive welfare allowance for elderly farmer, we find that farm households who did not receive the welfare allowance would cause its agricultural income dropped significantly, while the farm households who received the welfare allowance would not. Therefore, it was confirmed that the welfare allowance for elderly farmer could effectively mitigate the impact of the epidemic on agricultural income, and protect the farm households with a high proportion of the elderly population. Some caveats remain in this study. For example, our annual-level data can only be used to understand the overall impact of the whole year. If the analysis can be carried out on a quarterly or monthly basis, or the observation year after the outbreak of the epidemic can be added, the effect of the epidemic can be observed more clearly. Data on the implementation results of the bailout and revitalization policies, such as the use of rural travel coupons and whether farmers have applied for bailout loans, can provide a more complete analysis.