新冠肺炎對國內旅遊需求的影響：臺灣的實證研究

Abstract

新冠肺炎為一嚴重特殊傳染性疾病，自其於武漢爆發以來，疫情便迅速蔓延至全世界，而臺灣也深受新冠肺炎疫情影響。為防堵境外疫情，中央流行疫情指揮中心於2020年1月16日起開始實施各式邊境管制，外國旅客入境減少和國內旅遊風氣降緩使得我國旅遊業受到一系列的衝擊及挑戰，但實際影響程度仍未可知，故本研究旨在探討新冠肺炎疫情對臺灣國內旅遊業的衝擊及旅遊需求人數的變化。 本研究以雙重差分模型檢視在新冠肺炎疫情衝擊下國內旅遊需求人數的變化，並進一步以區域角度和據點類型去探究不同地區在不同疫情強度下對各地旅遊景點人數的影響和國人對室內、室外景點的偏好變化，最後則是利用事件分析法分析臺灣旅遊業的經濟復甦狀況。 研究結果顯示新冠肺炎對臺灣國內旅遊業帶來負向影響，在進一步以地區劃分後發現臺灣四大地區受新冠肺炎疫情影響最為嚴重的為北部地區和南部地區，且東部地區不受新冠肺炎疫情影響，原因可能為在疫情嚴重引起恐慌時，國人可能會更傾向至相對安全的區域觀光，而據點類型之異質性分析結果顯示，在新冠疫情爆發後，國人對據點類型的偏好的確有所改變，比起室內景點更偏好前往室外景點觀光，另外，雖然在疫情爆發前期，旅遊業立即受到險峻衝擊，但至2020年7月開始疫情已被有效控制，產業狀況亦慢慢回溫，至2020年8月旅遊產業的經濟狀況已回復至疫情前的水準。

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused a recent outbreak of respiratory illness that started in China, and has spread rapidly to the whole world including Taiwan. On 16 Jan 2020, in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, the CDC implemented prevention measures of COVID-19 (e.g., entry ban on travelers), and these measures have severely affected Taiwan’s tourism demand because of the reduction of inbound vicitors. Although the pandemic has been under control due to the effective public health measures, it is still unclear when and to what extent the economic activity of the tourism industry will recover. This study aims to investigate the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on Taiwan’s tourism industry, using the monthly report on tourism statistics maintained by the Taiwan Tourism Bureau. I first employed a difference-in-differences model to estimate the effect of COVID-19 on tourism industry. I also conduct a heterogeneity analysis to examine whether the tourism demand varies by regions and by different types of scenic spots. Finally, I used an event-study model to assess to what extent the economic activity of the tourism industry recovered. The results showed that the COVID-19 pandemic has adversely affected the domestic tourism demand in Taiwan, especially for the northern Taiwan and the southern Taiwan. In addition, the COVID-19 has reshaped the public’s preference for scenic spots, and I find that people prefer outdoor spots to indoor spots. Finally, the results showed that as the pandemic had been under control in August 2020, the economic activity of the tourism industry has recovered to the pre-pandemic level.