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標題: | 時變性洪患韌性指標於高都市化區域之研究—以中永和為例 Time-dependent Flooding Resilience Index Applied in Highly Urbanized Areas — A Case Study of Zhonghe and Yonghe District |
作者: | 張雅婷 Ya-Ting Chang |
指導教授: | 何昊哲 Hao-Che Ho |
關鍵字: | 都市韌性,洪患韌性指標,氣候變遷實體風險,淹水模擬,3Di 模式, Urban resilience,Flood resilience index,Climate physical risks,Flooding simulation,3Di mode, |
出版年 : | 2022 |
學位: | 碩士 |
摘要: | 氣候變遷使極端事件的發生機率提高,加上都市化改變了土地利用類型,兩者對都市的排水系統造成很大的挑戰。都市土地面積有限,既無法無限增加抽水容量及堤防高度等集中式的基礎工程,面對高重現期的降雨也難以透過分散式的低衝擊開發(LID) 有效減洪,加上政府救災資源有限,需透過科學化的工具謹慎評估洪水事件中各區域所配給的資源多寡與時間。
本研究以脆弱度(vulnerability)與回復力(recovery)的概念作為韌性的切入點,設計具有時間變異性的洪患韌性指標(Flood Resilience Index, FRI) ,參酌 ISO14090 對氣候變遷風險的定義,取危害度、暴露度與敏感度為 FRI 內部的三大指標,依照各指標的定義選擇適合研究區域中永和的因子及設計量化公式。 有鑑於防災管理的決策調度時間緊湊,本研究選擇以高精度且計算快速的3Di 來模擬中永和面臨 RCP8.5 情境雨量的淹水程度,透過 Arc GIS 後處理取得具有時間變異性的物理性因子;而社會性因子則依照公式定義,隨著各里社經條件和淹水延時而改變。 本研究證實社會性因子的時變對 FRI 的作用為分數降低、回復期拉長且出現時間延後。根據危害度指標內超過臨界值的因子數量可將風險程度歸納為三類,FRI 亦可依其趨勢線圖像區分為三類,並與危害度指標的分類做對照。最後本研究透過改變降雨量、降雨延時、降雨型態比較不同設計雨型之 FRI,其中韌性較佳的降雨特徵為小雨量、短延時、左偏雨型的情境。決策者可透過 FRI 事件期中相鄰兩時間的梯度差,判斷區域致災時間點並即時給予救援,以調適災害衝擊,增加韌性。 Climate change has increased the incidence of extreme events, and moreover, urbanization has changed land use patterns, both of which pose significant challenges to urban drainage systems. The space in urban area is too limited to increase in pumping capacity and embankment height for centralized infrastructure unlimitedly. In the face of rainfall with high return period, the decentralized low-impact development (LID) isn’t effective of flooding reduction, so under limited resources in the flooding events, government needs a scientific tool to carefully evaluate the amount and timing of resources for each district. The study introduced vulnerability and recovery as the concepts of resilience, and designed a time-varying Flood Resilience Index (FRI). Based on the definition of climate change risk in ISO 14090, the three main indicators of FRI are hazard, exposure, and sensitivity. The factors are suitable for the study area are selected according to the definition of each indicator and the quantification formula is designed. In view of the tight activation time for decision making in disaster prevention and management, we simulated the rainfall scenario of RCP8.5 by 3Di, a numerical model with high resolution, fast calculation speed. Subsequently, we obtained the physical factors with time variation through post-processing in Arc GIS. In the study, the effect of time dependent social factor on FRI was found to be a decrease in score, a longer recovery period, and a delay in occurrence. The number of factors exceeding the reference value in the hazard indicators could be classified into three types from high to low risk level; furthermore, FRI is categorized according to its trend and compared with the level of hazard. Finally, the study contrasted the FRI of different rainfall designs by changing the total precipitations, rainfall duration, and rainfall pattern, among which the more resilient are smaller amount of precipitation, shorter duration, and left-skewed rainfall pattern. By calculating the gradient difference between two adjacent hours in the event phase of FRI, the decision maker could determine the timing of disaster and provide immediate relief to adjust the impact and increase the resilience. |
URI: | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/86313 |
DOI: | 10.6342/NTU202202440 |
全文授權: | 同意授權(全球公開) |
電子全文公開日期: | 2025-08-31 |
顯示於系所單位: | 土木工程學系 |
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