匯率操縱國?中國匯率政策的內外因素分析

Abstract

因為匯率政策在開放經濟下之分配性效果，因而讓匯率政策成為國際貿易與國際政制經濟學所關注的議題。然而，既有研究對於中國的匯率政策較多還是著重在匯率改革的影響，而缺乏對於中國匯率決策體系和國際互動的完整討論。本文作者從1994年外匯體制改革以來，匯率改革發展與國際互動下匯率政策的調整，再從個體、制度與國際互動因素，來推論中國匯率政策決定的成因，並指出中國政府所關注的國內經濟情勢與匯率政策的偏好，影響了中國政府如何在匯率議題上與其他國家與國際組織進行互動。最後研究也指出，中國匯率政策選擇因考量到國內經濟的結構，仍在貨幣不可能三元下尋求平衡，並且在資本開放與穩定匯率間陷入兩難。此研究發現不僅呼應了開放經濟下政府面臨的貨幣三難問題，也為中、美貿易摩擦後的中國匯率政策提供未來研究的方向。

Due to the distributional effects of currency policy in an open economy, currency policy preferences have become a central issue of international trade and politics. However, previous research has mainly focused on the effects of exchange rate reform, while less attention has been paid to the the impact of domestic-international interactions on exchange-rate policy formulation. In examining China's currency policy, the study will investigate the possible causes of policy decisions after the 1994 foreign exchange system reform in terms of group interests, domestic institutions and international interactions. The paper argues that China's policy makers face a dilemma between a stable currency and free capital movement. Additionally, the study provides a framework on which to analyze the possible future direction of China's currency policy after the trade frictions between the U.S. and China.