新冠肺炎疫情對台灣養豬產業影響之經濟評估

Abstract

2020年全世界在無預警的情況下，人群間突然爆發流行性的傳染病，其傳染的途徑與速度，在人類過去的歷史，是前所未有的經驗，甚至與14世紀「黑死病大流行」相提並論。世界衛生組織(WHO)正式命名為「新冠肺炎」(COVID-19)，即使人類對於疾病傳播知識已經進步很多，但對於突如其來的新冠肺炎疫情，仍然束手無策，世界各國領導者們為了國家的利益以及人民的安全，先後採取緊急的措施，對外管制國際旅客的進出，封閉國境邊界，阻止境外病毒的移入。對外限制人民的自由移動，阻止國內疫情的大流行。如今國際全球專業分工，世界工廠的生產情勢，各國鎖國與封城的政策，因此造成全世界供應鏈鍛鍊危機。 台灣地區的豬價會隨著景氣波動以及在養豬隻的頭數一起連動的變化，市場拍賣的毛豬頭數或增或減，馬上影響毛豬價格並反映在消費市場的售價，在經濟學上屬於「淺盤經濟」。養豬飼料費用約占總生產成本70%左右，然而90%的飼料原料依賴進口，雖然台灣的養豬產業以內需消費為主，但因為疫情造成國際貿易的停滯與原料生產國禁止出口影響，台灣的養豬產業仍被國際疫情所牽動。 隔離的政策造成家庭廚餘量的增加，看似跟養豬產業沒有關係，實則可能牽動市場的變化。受到新冠肺炎疫情的影響，對於養豬戶而言，飼料成本上漲近5成。若改用廚餘養豬、飼養的成本反而可以減少將近4成，但使用廚餘養豬最擔心的還是非洲豬瘟的影響，一旦因為廚餘造成非洲豬瘟防疫的破口，除了感染非洲豬瘟的病豬必須清除以外，鄰近的豬隻也必須一起撲殺，這將會造成全台灣養豬產業的大災難。 本研究推論分析疫情爆發後，原物料行情高漲，造成飼料價格攀升，進而影響毛豬上市價格。其次牧場的經營者除了必須解決豬隻疾病轉為複合感染使得養豬效率偏低的常態問題，疫情爆發後又必須面臨諸多不確定性，包括消費需求的疲弱以及成本提高，因此非計畫性或非理性的減少飼養規模，造成毛豬上市成交頭數減少。另外，因為隔離的政策，產生大量家庭廚餘，對於毛豬上市平均重量有顯著的影響。同時在禁止廚餘養豬的期間，毛豬上市平均重量有顯著的漸少。

In 2020, there will be a unexpected outbreak of epidemic infectious diseases among people in the world without warning. The way and speed of its infection is an unprecedented experience in the past history of mankind, even with the "Black Death Pandemic" in the 14th century. The World Health Organization (WHO) officially named it " Coronavirus disease 2019" (COVID-19). Even though human beings have made a lot of progress in the knowledge of disease transmission, they are still helpless against the unexpected outbreak of COVID-19. For the safety of the people, urgent measures have been taken successively to control the entry and exit of international passengers, close borders, and prevent the entry of foreign viruses. External restrictions on the free movement of people to prevent domestic epidemics. Nowadays, the international global division of labor, the production situation of the world's factories, and the policies of various countries to lock down the country and the city have caused a crisis in the global supply chain training. The price of pigs in Taiwan will change with the fluctuation of the economy and the number of pigs being raised. The number of hairy pigs auctioned in the market will increase or decrease, which will immediately affect the price of hairy pigs and reflect the selling price in the consumer market. In economics It belongs to the "shallow market economy". The cost of raising pig feed accounts for about 70% of the total production cost. However, 90% of the feed raw materials are imported. Although Taiwan's pig industry mainly consumes domestic consumption, the stagnation of international trade due to the epidemic and the prohibition of export by raw material producing countries have affected. Taiwan's pig industry is still affected by the international epidemic. The isolation policy has caused an increase in household kitchen waste, which seems to have nothing to do with the pig industry, but may actually affect changes in the market. Affected by the new crown pneumonia epidemic, for pig farmers, the cost of feed has risen by nearly 50%. If you use food waste to raise pigs, the cost of raising pigs can be reduced by nearly 40%, but the most worrying thing about using food waste to raise pigs is the impact of African swine fever. The sick pigs of swine fever must be eliminated, and the neighboring pigs must also be culled together, which will cause a catastrophe to the entire Taiwanese pig industry. This study inferred and analyzed that after the outbreak of the epidemic, the market of raw materials rose, causing the price of feed to rise, which in turn affected the listed price of wool pigs. Secondly, in addition to solving the normal problem of low pig raising efficiency due to the transformation of pig diseases into complex infections, the farm operators must face many uncertainties after the outbreak, including weak consumer demand and increased costs, so it is not planned. Or irrationally reduce the feeding scale, resulting in a decrease in the number of hairy pigs sold on the market. In addition, due to the isolation policy, a large amount of household kitchen waste is generated, which has a significant impact on the average weight of wool pigs on the market. At the same time, during the period of banning food waste to raise pigs, the average weight of hairy pigs on the market has decreased significantly.