公司財務績效對環境污染的影響:斷點迴歸密度測試應用

Abstract

隨著人類的社會發展逐漸進步，環境污染成為炙手可熱的話題。然而，比起 家戶個體來說，公司企業對環境的危害更顯得巨大。本文探討當公司面臨財務 績效壓力時，是否會利用對環境不友善的手段，藉此減輕財務績效的壓力。 本文利用 I/B/E/S、Compustat、EPA 三種數據，首先利用 McCrary (2008) 提出的斷點迴歸密度檢定方法，檢定績效目標附近的樣本點是否存在顯著的密 度差異，並判斷認定這些公司是否操縱(manipulate)財務績效以實現分析師的 預測目標。結果發現，位於績效目標附近的樣本，在臨界值處產生顯著的不連 續性。這也表明與實際 EPS 未達預估 EPS 的公司相比，大多數的公司實際 EPS 剛剛好超過預估 EPS。 接著，我們想探討上一期實際 EPS 僅落後分析師預估 EPS 微小差距的公司， 於當期的污染警告、罰鍰次數是否顯著大於那些上一期實際 EPS 超越分析師預 估 EPS 的公司。為了探討這個現象，我們選擇與 Bennett et al.(2017)相同的績 效目標範圍進行迴歸分析。結果發現，以平均來說，當公司去年面臨實際 EPS 僅微幅小於分析師預估 EPS 中位數時，其平均受污染警告次數會比實際 EPS 僅 微幅大於分析師預估 EPS 中位數的公司多 0.3425 次。

With the human social development, environmental pollution has become a hot topic. However, compared with individual households, companies and enterprises are more harmful to the environment. This paper examines whether companies use environmentally unfriendly means to alleviate financial performance pressures when they face financial performance pressures. This paper uses I/B/E/S, Compustat and EPA data, and firstly uses the regression discontinue design density test method proposed by McCrary (2008) to test whether there is a significant density difference in the sample points near the performance target. It was found that samples located near the performance target produced significant discontinuities at critical values. Next, we wanted to explore the relationship between the number of pollution warnings and a company's financial performance. We choose the same performance target range as Bennett et al. (2017) for regression analysis, i.e., a sample where the gap between actual EPS and analyst forecast EPS is between 0.029 and -0.058. It found that, on average, when companies faced an actual EPS that was only slightly less than the median analyst estimate last year, the average number of contamination warnings was only slightly greater than the median analyst estimate. 0.3425 more companies.