以超商密度推估都市化對生育率的影響

Abstract

都市化已被認為強力生育率負向影響因子。早期研究聚焦於跨國比較，近期轉向國內差異比較，然而，台灣地狹人稠，城鄉界線不明，不易劃分鄉村或都市。 連鎖超商為都市化產物，連鎖超商的密度或能反映都市化的程度。本研究嘗試以連鎖超商門市的人均密度和都市化對育齡婦女生育率影響進行推估：在控制人口密度、扶老比、女性有偶率、女性外配比、房價中位數、男女比與原住民比後，加上都市化經濟因素：國小密度、教員密度、醫院密度、病床密度、女性勞參率、大專女性比、碩士女性比與博士女性比等變數，利用台灣本島349 個區鄉鎮市的民國101 年到109 年追蹤資料，以固定效果排除都市化非經濟因素後，經濟因素中的教員密度、女性勞參率、大專女性比與碩士女性比對生育率有負面影響，此時，「7-Eleven 與全家兩大超商密度」對生育率的負面影響依然明顯顯著，呈現了都市化對經濟因素聚合與強化的能力。以預測角度來說，相當於每萬人多擁有一家7-Eleven 或全家便利超商，每萬名育齡婦女生育的嬰兒會減少2.6096人。控制變數中，女性有偶率與原住民比顯著，其餘如：房價、外配比與扶老比等對生育率影響均不顯著。

Urbanization is considered as a strong negative influencing factor on fertility rate. While earlier studies concentrate on cross-country comparisons, recently the focus has shifted to domestic differences. However, with Taiwan’s dense population and blurred boundaries between urban and rural areas, it is difficult to delineate between the two. Convenience store chains are a product of urbanization, and the density of those stores may reflect urbanization. This study attempts to estimate the effect of the density of convenience store chains and urbanization on the fertility rate of women of fertilization age. Population density, old-age dependency ratio, female married rate, female foreign-parent ratio, the median price of housing, male-to-female ratio, and indigenous ratio are controlled. Then, urbanization economic factors are added, such as elementary school density, faculty density, hospital density, hospital bed density, female labor force participation rate, female college education ratio, female master’s degree ratio, and female doctoral degree ratio. The author tracked data from 101 to 109 years from 349 towns and cities in Taiwan. After excluding noneconomic factors of urbanization with fixed effects, the economic factors of faculty density, female labor force participation rate, female college education ratio, and female master’s degree ratio have negative effects on fertility rate. The negative impact of the density of 7-Eleven and Family Mart on the fertility rate is still clear and significant, showing the ability of urbanization to aggregate and strengthen economic factors. Based on predictions, this is equivalent to 2.6096 fewer babies per 10,000 women of fertilization age for every 10,000 people who own an additional 7-Eleven or Family Mart. Among the control variables, the female married rate and indigenous ratio have significant effects on fertility, while the rest do not, such as housing price, foreign-parent ratio, and old-age dependency ratio.