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| DC 欄位 | 值 | 語言 |
|---|---|---|
| dc.contributor.advisor | 林建甫(Chien-Fu Lin) | |
| dc.contributor.author | Hao-Jen Wu | en |
| dc.contributor.author | 吳浩任 | zh_TW |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2023-03-19T23:18:05Z | - |
| dc.date.copyright | 2022-08-18 | |
| dc.date.issued | 2022 | |
| dc.date.submitted | 2022-07-08 | |
| dc.identifier.citation | 周文生與王玉玲 (2013),“酒後違規者對酒駕行為認知之研究,”《交通學報》,第13卷第2期, pp. 153-178. 林晏如 (2015),“相對剝奪感與健康-負面健康行為中介效果之驗證,”《台灣公共衛生雜誌》, 34(3), 286-301. 陳旭昇 (2013),《時間序列分析:總體經濟與財務金融之應用》,東華書局。 楊明仁,何啟功,樊聯仁,與楊美賞 (1996),“工作壓力與飲酒行為,” The Kaohsiung Journal of Medical Sciences, 12(12), 670-684. Bosque-Prous, M., Espelt, A., Sordo, L., Guitart, A. M., Brugal, M. T., & Bravo, M. J. (2015), “Job loss, unemployment and the incidence of hazardous drinking during the late 2000s recession in Europe among adults aged 50–64 years,” PloS One, 10(10), e0140017. Brenner, M. H. (1975), “Trends in alcohol consumption and associated illnesses. Some effects of economic changes,” American Journal of Public Health, 65(12), 1279-1292. Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1979), “Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root,” Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366a), 427-431. Engle, R. F., & Granger, C. W. (1987), “Co-integration and error correction: representation, estimation, and testing,” Econometrica, 251-276. Gallet, C. A. (2007), “The demand for alcohol: a meta‐analysis of elasticities,” Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 51(2), 121-135. Granger, C. W. (1969), “Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods,” Econometrica, 424-438. Granger, C. W., & Newbold, P. (1974), “Spurious regressions in econometrics,” Journal of Econometrics, 2(2), 111-120. Johansen, S. (1988), “Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors,” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12(2-3), 231-254. Johansen, S., & Juselius, K. (1990), “Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration—with appucations to the demand for money,” Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52(2), 169-210. Lantz, A. E., & Harmon, K. (1981), “Spirits of the west: rapid growth and drinking strategies for prevention,” Social Systems Research and Evaluation Division, Denver Research Institute, University of Denver. Moan, I. S., Norström, T., & Storvoll, E. E. (2013), “Alcohol use and drunk driving: the modifying effect of impulsivity,” Journal of Studies on Alcohol and Drugs, 74(1), 114-119. Nelson, C. R., & Plosser, C. R. (1982), “Trends and random walks in macroeconomic time series: some evidence and implications,” Journal of Monetary Economics, 10(2), 139-162. Pagan, A. R., & Wickens, M. R. (1989), “A survey of some recent econometric methods,” The Economic Journal, 99(398), 962-1025. Popovici, I., & French, M. T. (2013), “Does unemployment lead to greater alcohol consumption?,” Industrial Relations: A Journal of Economy and Society, 52(2), 444-466. Ruhm, C. J. (1995), “Economic conditions and alcohol problems,” Journal of Health Economics, 14(5), 583-603. Ruhm, C. J., & Black, W. E. (2002), “Does drinking really decrease in bad times?,” Journal of Health Economics, 21(4), 659-678. Sims, C. A. (1980), “Macroeconomics and reality,” Econometrica, 1-48. Skog, O. J. (1986), “An analysis of divergent trends in alcohol consumption and economic development,” Journal of Studies on Alcohol, 47(1), 19-25. Wagenaar, A. C., & Streff, F. M. (1989), “Macroeconomic conditions and alcohol-impaired driving,” Journal of Studies on Alcohol, 50(3), 217-225. Wilsnack, R. W., Vogeltanz, N. D., Wilsnack, S. C., & Harris, T. R. (2000), “Gender differences in alcohol consumption and adverse drinking consequences: cross‐cultural patterns,” Addiction, 95(2), 251-265. Wilsnack, R. W., Wilsnack, S. C., Kristjanson, A. F., Vogeltanz‐Holm, N. D., & Gmel, G. (2009), “Gender and alcohol consumption: patterns from the multinational GENACIS project,” Addiction, 104(9), 1487-1500. | |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/85532 | - |
| dc.description.abstract | 由於近年來酒駕被取締次數仍居高不下，故本研究利用台灣2003年1月至2020年12月內政部警政署之酒後駕車被取締件數月資料，探討各個數變數對酒駕被取締次數之影響及變數間相關性，找出可能影響酒駕之因素。根據單根檢定以及共整合檢定之檢定結果選用向量誤差修正模型進行迴歸分析，並以Granger因果檢定、衝擊反應函數以及變異數分解，來探討變數之間的關係。研究結果顯示，每人可支配所得中位數、酒類消費量及男性失業率對酒駕被取締次數之影響為正，酒類物價指數及女性失業率對酒駕被取締次數之影響為負。本研究針對以上結果提出相關政策方向建議，以供政府相關單位在制定酒駕防制相關政策時參考。 | zh_TW |
| dc.description.abstract | As the frequency of drunk driving has remained high in recent years, this study collected the number of drunk driving arrested from the National Police Agency's road traffic accident investigation data from January 2003 to December 2020. And used it to analyze the influence of various macroeconomic variables on the number of drunk driving arrested and the correlation between these variables, in order to find out the factors that may affect drunk driving. According to the results of Unit Root Test and the Cointegration Test, we use the Vector Error Correction Model for regression analysis, and use Granger causality test, impulse response function and variance decomposition to explain the relationship between variables. The final results shows that the median disposable income per person, alcohol consumption and male unemployment rate have a positive impact on the number of drunk driving arrested, while the alcohol price index and female unemployment rate have a negative impact on the number of drunk driving arrested. In view of the above results, this study puts forward relevant policy recommendations for reference by government units when formulating policies related to drunk driving prevention. | en |
| dc.description.provenance | Made available in DSpace on 2023-03-19T23:18:05Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 U0001-0607202220322200.pdf: 837896 bytes, checksum: baa0859abea149be9d8e38155caaf8d1 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2022 | en |
| dc.description.tableofcontents | 目 錄 謝辭 I 摘要 II ABSTRACT III 目 錄 IV 圖目錄 VI 表目錄 VII 第一章 緒論 1 1.1研究背景與動機 1 1.2研究架構及流程 3 第二章 文獻回顧 5 2.1失業與酒類消費 5 2.2經濟狀況與酒類消費 6 2.3酒類消費量與酒駕 7 2.4性別與酒駕 7 第三章 實證方法與變數 10 3.1單根檢定 10 3.1.1 Augmented Dickey-Fuller檢定 11 3.2共整合檢定 12 3.3向量自我迴歸模型 15 3.4向量誤差修正模型 16 3.5 Granger因果關係 17 3.6衝擊反應函數 18 3.7變異數分解 18 3.8樣本期間與定義 19 3.8.1被解釋變數 19 3.8.2解釋變數 20 第四章 實證結果分析 24 4.1敘述統計量 24 4.2 ADF單根檢定 26 4.3 Johansen共整合檢定 26 4.4向量誤差修正模型 29 4.5 Granger因果檢定 34 4.6衝擊反應函數 36 4.7變異數分解 38 第五章 結論 45 5.1研究結論 45 5.2研究建議 47 參考文獻 48 圖目錄 圖1.1 酒駕被取締件數及移送法辦件數 2 圖1.2 研究流程圖 錯誤! 尚未定義書籤。 圖3.1 酒駕被取締次數 20 圖3.2 每人可支配所得中位數 21 圖3.3 酒類消費量 21 圖3.4 酒類物價指數 22 圖3.5 男女失業率 23 圖4.1 VECM之衝擊反應函數圖 37 表目錄 表3.1變數說明 23 表4.1 敘述統計量 25 表4.2 相關係數表 25 表4.3 ADF檢定結果 26 表4.4 Johansen共整合檢定結果 28 表4.5 VECM估計結果 33 表4.6 Granger因果關係檢定結果 35 表4. 7 酒駕被取締次數之變異數分解 39 表4. 8 酒類價格之變異數分解 40 表4. 9 酒類消費之變異數分解 41 表4. 10 每人可支配所得中位數之變異數分解 42 表4. 11 男性失業率之變異數分解 43 表4. 12 女性失業率之變異數分解 44 | |
| dc.language.iso | zh-TW | |
| dc.subject | Granger因果關係檢定 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject | 變異數分解 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject | 衝擊反應函數 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject | 酒駕 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject | 單根檢定 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject | 共整合檢定 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject | 向量誤差修正模型 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject | drunk driving | en |
| dc.subject | Granger Causality Test | en |
| dc.subject | Impulse Response Function | en |
| dc.subject | Vector Error Correction Model | en |
| dc.subject | Cointegration Test | en |
| dc.subject | Variance Decomposition | en |
| dc.subject | Unit Root Test | en |
| dc.title | 台灣酒駕被取締次數與總體經濟變數分析 | zh_TW |
| dc.title | An Analysis of the Number of Drunk Driving Arrested and Macroeconomic Variables in Taiwan | en |
| dc.type | Thesis | |
| dc.date.schoolyear | 110-2 | |
| dc.description.degree | 碩士 | |
| dc.contributor.oralexamcommittee | 許振明(Chen-Min Hsu),謝德宗(Der-Tzon Hsieh),王柏元(Po-Yuan Wang) | |
| dc.subject.keyword | 酒駕,單根檢定,共整合檢定,向量誤差修正模型,Granger因果關係檢定,衝擊反應函數,變異數分解, | zh_TW |
| dc.subject.keyword | drunk driving,Unit Root Test,Cointegration Test,Vector Error Correction Model,Granger Causality Test,Impulse Response Function,Variance Decomposition, | en |
| dc.relation.page | 50 | |
| dc.identifier.doi | 10.6342/NTU202201313 | |
| dc.rights.note | 同意授權(全球公開) | |
| dc.date.accepted | 2022-07-08 | |
| dc.contributor.author-college | 社會科學院 | zh_TW |
| dc.contributor.author-dept | 經濟學研究所 | zh_TW |
| dc.date.embargo-lift | 2022-08-18 | - |
| 顯示於系所單位： | 經濟學系 | |
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