利率對臺灣金融帳影響之實證研究

Abstract

本文應用行政院主計總處、aremos資料庫及IMF、IFS資料庫，樣本資料時間始於1994年7月至2021年9月之季資料進行實證研究。探討我國市場利率變化是否會影響到金融帳的變化。實證結果發現在樣本資料期間內我國多數時期處於資本流出狀態，市場利率則受到貨幣政策影響，此外實證結果也發現我國的金融帳受到本國市場利率、國內生產毛額、季節性因素顯著性影響，而政策利率的調整經由影響市場利率而影響投資人選擇國內或國外市場投資，進而改變金融帳的餘額。

This study investigates the effect of market interest rates on the financial account in Taiwan with the sample period from July 1994 to September 2021. The sample data sources are from the Taiwan government’s database, the AREMOS database, and the IMF and IFS databases. The empirical results found that it showed capital outflow from Taiwan for most of the sample period, and the market interest rates were affected by monetary policy. In addition, the financial account has been significantly affected by the domestic market interest rates, gross domestic product, and seasonal factors etc. in Taiwan. The adjustment of the policy interest rates can affect the investors choice between domestic and foreign market investment, thereby change the balance of the financial account.