論壽險公司於市場變遷下對於不動產投資之因應策略

Abstract

新冠肺炎（COVID-19）在2020年成為全球重大流行疾病，為能兼顧經濟發展與疫情控制，全球發展出許多不同於過往的工作與生活模式，而其改變是否進一步影響商用不動產市場需求型態，仍有待時間來驗證；然而商用不動產的投資涉及長時間的規劃、興建及招商營運，面對未來可能的市場變動，對於尋求投資長期穩定收益性不動產的壽險公司而言，應及早思考市場變遷對其不動產投資策略之影響。本研究之目的，除了在探討後疫情時代人類工作、生活型態的改變，是否影響商用不動產的發展趨勢以及深入了解壽險公司在投資不動產的策略上應如何因應之外，另一方面亦同時剖析其他市場變遷因素下，如電子商務的蓬勃發展，因而造成不動產產業的相關影響。 研究者任職的公司屬於不動產顧問業，長期協助台灣壽險公司進行投資評估建議，本研究以研究者長期累績的專業經驗及專家訪談方式執行，研究結果歸納出在後疫情時代商用不動產的兩大發展趨勢，其一為消費者大幅提高對於網路購物之使用與依賴，使實體零售面臨一定的衝擊，而物流中心及數據中心等不動產卻因此受惠，此一變化從美國REITs投資組合結構與十年前有所不同便可見一斑；另一方面，辦公大樓的需求並未受居家工作型態的興起而減少，反而促使多數企業意識到提供員工健康、安全工作環境的重要性，進而希望尋求符合國際認證標準的辦公環境，因此具備LEED、ESG、WELLS等標章的辦公大樓遂成為企業選址之重要標準。 本研究發現台灣壽險公司在選擇投資標的以辦公大樓為主，其次為購物商場及旅館，近三年因應市場變動(如電子商務的需求旺盛)，亦開始投資物流中心，本研究建議在目前多數壽險公司所持有的辦公大樓除面臨多數有屋齡老舊之問題外，應思考在未來競爭與需求變化的情形下，可透過投資設備更新、危老重建或都市更新等策略，加速提升持有資產的品質；另一方面，對於投資大型百貨商場評估時應更加謹慎，除尋求經營績效良好、財務實力穩健之承租方外，應適度提高評估投資大型百貨商場時的風險係數及要求投資報酬率，以因應市場變遷所產生的長期投資風險。

The new crown pneumonia (COVID-19) has become a major global epidemic since 2020. To balance economic development and epidemic control, many different human work and lifestyles have been developed around the world. Whether such changes may further affect the market demand patterns in the commercial real estate market is being tested and proved as time goes by; however, investments in the commercial real estate involve long-term planning, construction, and operations, life insurance companies looking for stable returns in long-term real estate investments shall deliberate the impact on the real estate investment strategies for such changes as early as possible in order to face any potential market movements in the future. The purpose of this study is not only to explore whether the changes in human work and lifestyles in a post-epidemic future may affect the development trend of the commercial real estate, but also deeply understand how life insurance companies shall develop the real estate investment strategies in order to cope with such market tendencies.. Additionally, it is to analyze other factors to cause relevant impacts on real estate industry resulting from market changes, such as the vigorous development of E-Commerce. The researcher works for real estate consulting company and has been assisting many life insurance companies in Taiwan making investment evaluations and recommendations for a long time. This study is conducted based on the researcher’s long-term professional experiences and experts’ interviews. The study results summarized two major trends of commercial real estate in the post-epidemic era. One of the trends is that consumers have greatly increased their use and reliance on online shopping (E-Commerce), which has caused a certain impact on brick-and-mortar retailers, but brought benefits to logistics and data centers, where the changes were foreseeable through different investment portfolios of U.S. REITs since a decade ago. On the other hand, the demand for office buildings has not been reduced by the rise of work from home but has prompted most companies to realize the importance of providing employees with a healthy and safe working environment and therefore hope to seek the offices that meet with international certifications and standards. In this regard, offices with LEED, ESG, WELLS and other certifications have become critical criteria for enterprises to select the office site. This study found that life insurance companies in Taiwan mainly choose to invest in office buildings, followed by shopping malls and hotels. In response to market changes in the past three years (such as active demand of E-Commerce), they have also begun to invest in logistics centers. This study recommends that most of the office buildings owned by life insurance companies may have aging problems Additionally, to face future competition and changes in demand, it is suggested to accelerate improving the quality of the assets held through investment in equipment renewal, or strategies such as reconstruction of unsafe and old buildings or urban renewal. On the other hand, life insurance companies shall be more cautious when evaluating the investments in large department stores. In addition to seeking the lessees with good operating performance and great financial stability , life insurance companies shall moderately increase the risk factor and required return on investment when executing the investment assessment in large department stores so as to respond to the long-term impact resulting from market changes.