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| DC 欄位 | 值 | 語言 |
|---|---|---|
| dc.contributor.advisor | 張以杰(Yi-Jay Chang) | |
| dc.contributor.author | Po-Kai Lai | en |
| dc.contributor.author | 賴柏凱 | zh_TW |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2021-05-20T00:50:40Z | - |
| dc.date.available | 2021-07-31 | |
| dc.date.available | 2021-05-20T00:50:40Z | - |
| dc.date.copyright | 2020-09-02 | |
| dc.date.issued | 2020 | |
| dc.date.submitted | 2020-08-19 | |
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| dc.identifier.uri | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/8246 | - |
| dc.description.abstract | 南太平洋長鰭鮪為高度洄游性魚種，廣泛分佈於南太平洋南緯0° - 50°之間。氣候變遷所導致的海洋環境變異會顯著影響南太平洋長鰭鮪分布、密度及延繩釣漁業之利用度。本研究蒐集中西太平洋漁業委員會（Western and Central Pacific Fisheries Commission，WCPFC）及美洲熱帶鮪魚委員會（Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission，IATTC）延繩釣漁業資料以泛加成模型探討南太平洋長鰭鮪之空間分佈和棲地偏好。此外，本研究考慮各種大氣－氣候系統模式及碳排放情境（RCP4.5和RCP8.5）之氣候變遷下環境條件以系集預測降低長鰭鮪未來分布預測（2020，2050及2080年）之不確定性。結果顯示海下100公尺溶氧量及海表面溫度對長鰭鮪潛在分佈之影響最為重要，長鰭鮪偏好海下100公尺溶氧量介於0.2 - 0.25 mmol L-1及海表面溫度介於13 - 22 °C之棲地。本研究顯示在兩種RCP情境下，未來南太平洋長鰭鮪偏好棲地範圍之北界可能會南移約5°緯度，而在南緯30°以南海域之長鰭鮪密度則會增加，且該變動在RCP8.5情境下更為明顯。此外，本研究預測2080年長鰭鮪密度於南太平洋大部分國家之經濟水域可能有減少現象，其中以新喀里多尼亞減少的程度最高；然而在紐西蘭及諾福克島經濟水域之長鰭鮪密度則會增加。這些發現可作為氣候變遷下鮪類漁業利用度及其養護管理措施評估之漁業管理意涵。 | zh_TW |
| dc.description.abstract | South Pacific albacore (Thunnus alalunga) is a highly migratory tuna species widely distributed throughout 0° to 50°S in the South Pacific Ocean. Climate-driven changes in the oceanographic condition largely influence the albacore distribution, density, and the consequent availability by the longline fisheries. In this study, I examined the habitat preference and spatial distribution of south Pacific albacore using a generalized additive model fitted to the longline fisheries data from the Western and Central Pacific Fisheries Commission (WCPFC) and Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission (IATTC). Future projections of albacore distributions (2020, 2050, and 2080) were predicted by using an ensemble modelling approach produced from various atmosphere-ocean general circulation models and anthropogenic emission scenarios (i.e., RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) to reduce the uncertainty in the projected changes. The dissolved oxygen concentration at 100 meters (DO100) and sea surface temperature (SST) were found to have the most substantial effects on the potential albacore distribution that the albacore preferred in the habitat with DO100 of 0.2 - 0.25 mmol L-1 and SST of 13 - 22 °C. This study suggested that the northern boundary of albacore preferred habitat is expected to shift southward by about 5° latitudes, and the density is expected to gradually increase in the area south of 30°S from 2020 to 2080 for both RCP scenarios, especially with a higher degree of change for the RCP8.5. Moreover, the albacore density is projected to decrease in the most exclusive economic zones (EEZs) of countries and territories in the South Pacific Ocean by 2080 with the greatest depletion for New Caledonia, but is projected to increase in the EEZs of New Zealand and Norfolk Island. These findings could lend important implications on the availability of tuna resources to the fisheries and subsequent evaluation of tuna conservation and management measures under climate change. | en |
| dc.description.provenance | Made available in DSpace on 2021-05-20T00:50:40Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 U0001-1208202010155000.pdf: 5332118 bytes, checksum: 6c2407cc3345a8a3407c455bc24a3a54 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2020 | en |
| dc.description.tableofcontents | 摘要 i Abstract ii Chapter 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Albacore tuna biology 1 1.2 Albacore tuna fisheries 2 1.3 The impact of environmental variability and climate change 3 1.4 Objectives 4 Chapter 2 Materials and Methods 6 2.1 Fishery data 6 2.2 Historical and future environmental data 7 2.3 Species distribution model 8 2.4 Historical and future albacore distribution projection 9 2.5 Ensemble forecasting 10 2.6 Expected changes in EEZs 11 Chapter 3 Results 12 3.1 Albacore distribution model 12 3.2 Albacore distribution in the historical fishing period 13 3.3 Future projections 14 Chapter 4 Discussion 18 References 23 Tables 30 Figures 35 Appendix Figures 48 | |
| dc.language.iso | en | |
| dc.title | 以系集預測探討氣候變遷對南太平洋長鰭鮪分布之影響 | zh_TW |
| dc.title | Evaluation of the impacts of climate change on albacore distribution in the South Pacific Ocean by using ensemble forecast | en |
| dc.type | Thesis | |
| dc.date.schoolyear | 108-2 | |
| dc.description.degree | 碩士 | |
| dc.contributor.oralexamcommittee | 張水鍇(Shui-Kai Chang),陳志遠(Chiee-Young Chen),藍國瑋(Kuo-Wei Lan) | |
| dc.subject.keyword | 南太平洋長鰭鮪,系集預測,氣候變遷,物種分布模式, | zh_TW |
| dc.subject.keyword | South Pacific albacore,ensemble forecasting,climate change,species distribution model, | en |
| dc.relation.page | 61 | |
| dc.identifier.doi | 10.6342/NTU202003050 | |
| dc.rights.note | 同意授權(全球公開) | |
| dc.date.accepted | 2020-08-20 | |
| dc.contributor.author-college | 理學院 | zh_TW |
| dc.contributor.author-dept | 海洋研究所 | zh_TW |
| 顯示於系所單位： | 海洋研究所 | |
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