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| DC 欄位 | 值 | 語言 |
|---|---|---|
| dc.contributor.advisor | 石曜合(Yau-Huo Shr) | |
| dc.contributor.author | Jia-Shen Su | en |
| dc.contributor.author | 蘇家燊 | zh_TW |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2021-05-20T00:49:37Z | - |
| dc.date.available | 2021-05-20T00:49:37Z | - |
| dc.date.issued | 2020 | |
| dc.date.submitted | 2021-04-20 | |
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| dc.identifier.uri | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/8177 | - |
| dc.description.abstract | 隨著氣候變遷及空氣汙染等問題日趨嚴重，氣溫與空氣品質對於各種社會經濟現象所致影響已然成為各界之主要關注對象。兩者除對人類健康造成負面影響外，亦可能透過影響駕駛者狀態，進而改變交通事故發生的機會。本研究使用全臺灣在2014年至2018年間，行政院環保署「空氣品質監測網」之觀測資料與內政部警政署之歷史交通事故資料，探討高溫與空氣品質對交通事故之影響。在實證方法上，本研究首先以Spline迴歸與固定效果模型討論高溫與交通事故間存在之非線性關係，並進一步利用風向作為工具變數，處理空氣汙染與交通事故間可能存在之內生性。 實證結果指出，當日高溫低於20度時，其與交通事故數量、事故牽涉車輛數量並無顯著關聯；然若日高溫高於20度，則與兩者皆具顯著正相關。細究之，日高溫於20度至30度區間時，每上升1度會使事故數量增加0.55至0.67%、牽涉車輛數量增加0.73至0.96%；倘若日高溫超過30度，每上升1度對事故數量的邊際效果更達1.18至1.23%、牽涉車輛數量則會增加1.58至1.65%。本研究亦將事故牽涉車輛依其車種分類為汽車與機車類型，藉以觀察高溫對不同種類駕駛人之影響程度，結果顯示日高溫仍僅於20度以上時始具顯著正相關，且機車類型駕駛人具較高受影響程度。日高溫於20度至30度區間時，每上升1度會使汽車類型的牽涉車輛數量增加0.3至0.4%，機車類型的牽涉車輛數量增加0.6至0.7%；倘若日高溫超過30度，汽車類型的牽涉車輛數量增加0.9%，機車類型的牽涉車輛數量增加1.3%。此外，本研究發現2.5的估計結果皆呈顯著負相關，表示隨著2.5的平均濃度每上升1μg /m3，交通事故數量減少0.32至0.43%，事故牽涉車輛數量減少0.39至0.54%。 | zh_TW |
| dc.description.abstract | High temperature and air pollution have been linked to a variety of adverse health outcomes. These two factors may also influence the state of drivers, thereby affecting the likelihood of traffic accidents occurring. This study explores the impact of high temperature and air quality on traffic accidents using the air quality data and traffic accidents record between 2014 and 2018 from Taiwan. This paper applies fixed effects models with linear splines to examine the nonlinear relationship between high temperature and traffic accidents. To treat the potential endogeneity between air pollution and traffic accidents, I use wind direction as an instrumental variable to introduce exogenous shocks to air pollution. The results show that, when daily maximum temperatures reach above 20 C, daily maximum temperature has a positive and significant impact on the number of traffic accidents with casualties and vehicles involved. Specifically, for a 1 C increase in the maximum temperature between 20 and 30 C, the number of traffic accidents increases by 0.55-0.67%, while the number of vehicles involved increases by 0.73-0.96%. When the daily maximum temperature exceeds 30 C, a 1 C increase in maximum temperature leads to an increase of 1.18-1.23% in the number of traffic accidents and an increase of 1.58-1.65% in the number of vehicles involved. The results further indicate that the effect of high temperature is stronger on drivers of motorcycle/scooter than on car/truck drivers. When the daily maximum temperature exceeds 30 C, the number of cars/trucks and motorcycles/scooters involved increased by 0.9% and 1.3%, respectively. In addition, for every 1 μg/m3 increase in the daily average concentration of fine particulate matter (2.5), the number of traffic accidents decrease by 0.32-0.43%, and the number of vehicles involved in accidents decline by 0.39-0.54%. | en |
| dc.description.provenance | Made available in DSpace on 2021-05-20T00:49:37Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 U0001-1904202111142700.pdf: 2966907 bytes, checksum: 3de8fd25036633dfedca29118f7183d5 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2020 | en |
| dc.description.tableofcontents | 口試委員審定書 i 摘要 ii Abstract iii 目錄 iv 表目錄 vi 圖目錄 vi 第一章 緒論 1 第二章 文獻回顧 6 第一節 氣溫與其他氣象變數相關文獻 6 第二節 空氣污染相關文獻 8 第三節 小結 11 第三章 資料來源與處理 12 第一節 資料來源 12 一、氣象與空氣品質資料 12 二、交通事故資料 12 第二節 變數選取 13 第三節 資料處理 14 一、第一階段處理 14 二、第二階段處理 16 第四章 研究方法與實證模型 17 第一節 普通最小平方法 17 第二節 兩階段最小平方法 18 一、工具變數 19 二、工具變數相關檢定 22 三、模型檢定 23 第五章 實證結果與分析 24 第一節 敘述統計 24 第二節 OLS估計結果 25 一、事故數量 25 二、交通事故牽涉車輛數量 29 第三節 2SLS估計結果 31 一、事故數量 31 二、交通事故牽涉車輛數量 37 第六章 結論與限制 43 第一節 結論 43 第二節 研究限制 44 參考文獻 45 附錄 59 | |
| dc.language.iso | zh-TW | |
| dc.title | 高溫與空氣品質對交通事故之影響 | zh_TW |
| dc.title | The Impact of High Temperature and Air Quality on Traffic Accidents | en |
| dc.type | Thesis | |
| dc.date.schoolyear | 109-2 | |
| dc.description.degree | 碩士 | |
| dc.contributor.oralexamcommittee | 楊豐安(Feng-An Yang),張伯茹(Po-Ju Chang) | |
| dc.subject.keyword | 高溫,空氣品質,交通事故,工具變數, | zh_TW |
| dc.subject.keyword | High temperature,Air quality,Traffic accident,Instrumental variable, | en |
| dc.relation.page | 83 | |
| dc.identifier.doi | 10.6342/NTU202100838 | |
| dc.rights.note | 同意授權(全球公開) | |
| dc.date.accepted | 2021-04-21 | |
| dc.contributor.author-college | 生物資源暨農學院 | zh_TW |
| dc.contributor.author-dept | 農業經濟學研究所 | zh_TW |
| 顯示於系所單位： | 農業經濟學系 | |
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