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| DC 欄位 | 值 | 語言 |
|---|---|---|
| dc.contributor.advisor | 莊昀叡(Ray Y. Chuang) | |
| dc.contributor.author | Hsiang-Chieh Liu | en |
| dc.contributor.author | 劉向倢 | zh_TW |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2022-11-24T03:10:03Z | - |
| dc.date.available | 2021-11-04 | |
| dc.date.available | 2022-11-24T03:10:03Z | - |
| dc.date.copyright | 2021-11-04 | |
| dc.date.issued | 2021 | |
| dc.date.submitted | 2021-10-25 | |
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| dc.identifier.uri | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/80587 | - |
| dc.description.abstract | 臺灣位於地震頻繁的板塊交界帶,地質年輕地形破碎,為受地震型山崩影響的高危險地區。地震型山崩是地震引發的地質災害中,對人類最具有立即性危害的災害之一,若能在地震過後迅速掌握地震型山崩的分布,可以協助減災決策。透過建立臨近預測模型,可以在地震過後迅速預測山崩分布,提供主要受災區域的資訊。統計與機器學習方法被大量用於建立崩塌潛勢模型研究,本研究透過統計與機器學習兩種方法,建立臺灣地震型山崩模型,並討論其異同。統計模型中選擇被廣泛使用的邏輯迴歸;機器學習方法中,選擇整體學習方法中常被使用的隨機森林。本研究使用1999集集地震山崩作為訓練資料,1998瑞里地震作為驗證資料,根據前人研究挑選並製作影響地震型山崩的因子,輸出的資料空間解析度為40公尺,透過山崩率的直方圖與計算點二項相關係數以及克拉瑪係數篩選地震型山崩的影響因子,再分別以邏輯迴歸與隨機森林篩選變數重要性並分別建立模型,同時測試隨機森林變數透過相關係數篩選後建立模型與隨機森林自行篩選所建立的模型預測的結果。研究結果顯示,在臺灣的地震山崩事件中,PGA以及PGA與粗糙度的共同作用,在這兩種方式建立的模型所提供的變數重要性中,相較其他因子都具有更高程度的重要性。利用此兩種方式建立的地震山崩模型都具有不錯的預測能力,根據模型的特性,當自變數眾多時,使用邏輯迴歸測試所有變數的排列組合的過程會變得相對複雜,此時可以使用隨機森林方法。若是在訓練資料相對稀少,或是自變數數量較少的情況、以及希望短臨近預測時間時,可以使用邏輯迴歸。 | zh_TW |
| dc.description.provenance | Made available in DSpace on 2022-11-24T03:10:03Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 U0001-2410202100402200.pdf: 5571706 bytes, checksum: 46831d52db5c7358dbb14c7a47046a07 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2021 | en |
| dc.description.tableofcontents | 口試委員會審定書 致謝 I 摘要 II ABSTRACT III 目錄 V 圖目錄 VII 表目錄 IX 第 1 章 前言 1 1.1 研究動機 1 1.2 研究目的 5 第 2 章 文獻回顧 6 2.1 地震型山崩定義 6 2.2 地震型山崩影響因子 7 2.2.1 地震影響因子 8 2.2.2 地形因子 13 2.2.3 地質因子 17 2.2.4 土壤因子 20 2.2.5 水文因子 21 2.2.6 土地使用因子 22 2.3 地震型山崩分布推估 28 2.3.1 遙測影像圈繪 28 2.3.2 物理模型 29 2.3.3 統計模型 31 2.3.4 機器學習 31 2.4 地震型山崩預測模型 33 2.4.1 邏輯迴歸模式 33 2.4.2 隨機森林模型 35 第 3 章 研究方法 37 3.1 模型發展策略 37 3.1.1 地震與崩塌資料 39 3.1.2 變數資料來源及製作 42 3.2 地震型山崩影響因子之選擇 60 3.3 邏輯迴歸模式之建構 63 3.4 隨機森林模型之建構 65 3.5 模型比較與驗證方式 69 第 4 章 研究結果 73 4.1 地震型山崩之重要影響因子 73 4.2 邏輯迴歸模式預測結果 80 4.3 隨機森林模型預測結果 86 4.4 邏輯迴歸與隨機森林預測結果之差異 88 第 5 章 討論 92 5.1 模型展現的臺灣地震山崩因子特性 92 5.2 崩塌閾值之選擇 97 5.3 邏輯迴歸與隨機森林於臺灣地震型山崩鄰近預測之特性 98 第 6 章 結論 103 參考文獻 104 | |
| dc.language.iso | zh-TW | |
| dc.subject | 地震引發山崩 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject | 機器學習 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject | 點二項相關 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject | 同震山崩 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject | 塊體運動 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject | coseismic landslide | en |
| dc.subject | mass movement | en |
| dc.subject | seismically-induced landslide | en |
| dc.subject | machine learning | en |
| dc.subject | point biserial correlation coefficient | en |
| dc.title | 利用邏輯迴歸與隨機森林方法建立臺灣地震型山崩臨近預測模型 | zh_TW |
| dc.title | Using logistic regression and random forest for nowcasting modeling of earthquake-triggered landslides in Taiwan | en |
| dc.date.schoolyear | 109-2 | |
| dc.description.degree | 碩士 | |
| dc.contributor.coadvisor | 吳秉昇(Bing Sheng Wu) | |
| dc.contributor.oralexamcommittee | 李宗祐(Hsin-Tsai Liu),陳毅青(Chih-Yang Tseng),陳致元 | |
| dc.subject.keyword | 同震山崩,地震引發山崩,塊體運動,點二項相關,機器學習, | zh_TW |
| dc.subject.keyword | coseismic landslide,seismically-induced landslide,mass movement,point biserial correlation coefficient,machine learning, | en |
| dc.relation.page | 114 | |
| dc.identifier.doi | 10.6342/NTU202104078 | |
| dc.rights.note | 同意授權(限校園內公開) | |
| dc.date.accepted | 2021-10-25 | |
| dc.contributor.author-college | 理學院 | zh_TW |
| dc.contributor.author-dept | 地理環境資源學研究所 | zh_TW |
| 顯示於系所單位: | 地理環境資源學系 | |
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